1990年至2020年中国中老年人群黑色素瘤的疾病负担及趋势，以及2022年至2035年的预测

[Disease burden and trend of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly population in China from 1990 to 2020, and prediction for 2022 to 2035].

作者信息

Guan Lyuxin, Gan Ziqin, Huang Guangtao, Hou Suchun, Lyu Yansi

机构信息

Department of Burn and Plastic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518035, Guangdong Province, China.

Department of Dermatology, the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519000, Guangdong Province, China.

出版信息

Zhejiang Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2025 Jan 25;54(1):1-9. doi: 10.3724/zdxbyxb-2024-0385.

DOI:10.3724/zdxbyxb-2024-0385

PMID:39805675

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11956889/

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the disease burden of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly populations in China, and to predict the future trend.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were utilized to collect incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age crude rates among the middle-aged and elderly population in China during 1990 and 2021. Additionally, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to assess the temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to compute age, period, and cohort effects on incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, as well as to predict future trends up to 2035.

RESULTS

During 1990-2021, the incidence rate of melanoma for males was higher than that for females among the middle-aged and elderly population in China, and the overall incidence rate increased annually with an EAPC of 2.13 (1.90-2.36), while the overall mortality rate and DALY rate showed a declining trend with an EAPC of －0.28 (－0.41-－0.15) and －0.54 (－0.68-－0.41), respectively. The results of the APC model analysis revealed that age effects on both incidence and mortality rates of melanoma in China's middle-aged and elderly population were significant, with both increasing with age. Period and cohort effects showed an upward trend for incidence rates but a downward trend for mortality rates. Moreover, the period and cohort effects for mortality rates were not significant among females. In the BAPC prediction model, the number of incidences of melanoma in middle-aged and elderly people in China would increase dramatically. By 2035, the number of incidence cases is expected to reach approximately 9600 (males) and 10 300 (females), corresponding to an incidence rate of 2.66/10 and 2.67/10, respectively. The number of deaths is projected to be about 2600 (males) and 3500 (females) by 2035, corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.72/10 and 0.91/10, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of melanoma among the middle-aged and elderly population in China remains substantial and is expected to increase over the next decade.

摘要

目的

分析中国中老年人群黑色素瘤的疾病负担，并预测未来趋势。

方法

利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021的数据，收集1990年至2021年中国中老年人群黑色素瘤的发病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）及相应的年龄粗率。此外，采用估计年变化率（EAPC）评估时间趋势。利用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型计算年龄、时期和队列对黑色素瘤发病率和死亡率的影响，并预测至2035年的未来趋势。

结果

1990年至2021年期间，中国中老年人群中男性黑色素瘤发病率高于女性，总体发病率以每年2.13（1.90-2.36）的EAPC上升，而总体死亡率和DALY率呈下降趋势，EAPC分别为－0.28（－0.41-－0.15）和－0.54（－0.68-－0.41）。APC模型分析结果显示，年龄对中国中老年人群黑色素瘤发病率和死亡率的影响均显著，两者均随年龄增长而上升。时期和队列效应在发病率上呈上升趋势，在死亡率上呈下降趋势。此外，女性死亡率的时期和队列效应不显著。在BAPC预测模型中，中国中老年人群黑色素瘤发病数将大幅增加。到2035年，预计发病数分别达到约9600例（男性）和10300例（女性），发病率分别为2.66/10万和2.67/10万。预计到2035年死亡数分别约为2600例（男性）和3500例（女性），死亡率分别为0.72/10万和0.91/10万。