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1500年至2000年期间欧洲农业适宜性的时变指数。

A time-varying index for agricultural suitability across Europe from 1500-2000.

作者信息

Lehner Alexander, Philippe Dylan

机构信息

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.

University of Bern, Wyss Academy for Nature, Bern, 3011, Switzerland.

出版信息

Sci Data. 2025 Jan 17;12(1):101. doi: 10.1038/s41597-024-04194-z.

Abstract

Throughout the last centuries, European climate changed substantially, which affected the potential to plant and grow crops. These changes happened not just over time but also had a spatial dimension. Yet, despite large climatic fluctuations, quantitative historical studies typically rely on static measures for agricultural suitability due to the non-availability of time-varying indices. Relying on recent advances in paleoclimatology, we bridge this gap by constructing a spatio-temporal measure for agricultural suitability across Europe for a period of 500 years. Our gridded index has a 0.5° resolution and is available at a yearly level. It relies on a simple surface energy and water balance model, focusing only on so-called exogenous geographic and climatic features. Our index captures not just long-term trends, such as the Little Ice Age, but also short-term climatic shocks. It will empower researchers to explore the interplay between climatic fluctuations and Europe's agricultural landscape, analyze human responses at a local and regional scale, and foster a deeper understanding of the region's historical dynamics.

摘要

在过去的几个世纪里,欧洲气候发生了巨大变化,这影响了农作物种植和生长的潜力。这些变化不仅随时间发生,还具有空间维度。然而,尽管气候波动很大,但由于缺乏随时间变化的指标,定量历史研究通常依赖于农业适宜性的静态衡量标准。基于古气候学的最新进展,我们通过构建一个跨越500年的欧洲农业适宜性时空衡量标准来弥合这一差距。我们的网格化指数分辨率为0.5°,且每年都有数据。它依赖于一个简单的地表能量和水平衡模型,仅关注所谓的外部地理和气候特征。我们的指数不仅捕捉了长期趋势,如小冰期,还捕捉了短期气候冲击。它将使研究人员能够探索气候波动与欧洲农业景观之间的相互作用,分析地方和区域尺度上的人类应对措施,并促进对该地区历史动态的更深入理解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9b0/11742442/3a8057f57efd/41597_2024_4194_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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