Jia Cai, Wang Xudong, Qian Chengyang, Cao Zini, Zhao Long, Lin Luzhou
School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Huajin Campus, South 189 Jiuhua Rd, Wuhu, 241002, China.
Engineering Technology Research Center of Resources Environment and GIS, Wuhu, 241008, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 18;15(1):2380. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-86714-4.
Urban rail transit, as an efficient and eco-friendly mode of transportation, plays a pivotal role in mitigating traffic congestion and lowering urban carbon emissions. Despite the significant contributions by scholars in this area, debates surrounding the quantification of carbon emissions during the operational phase of urban rail transit persist, particularly in assessing its impact on reducing ground traffic congestion. This study examines the passenger flow during Beijing's morning and evening peak hours, assuming that all passengers initially using urban rail transit switch to buses and taxis during these periods. A traffic congestion prediction model is developed based on the analysis of actual traffic operation data under this assumption. Through this model, the study calculates the potential congestion times across various scenarios, employing a bottom-up approach to carbon emission estimation to analyze the impact on carbon emissions. Results spanning 2015 to 2021 suggest that substituting urban rail transit with buses could increase congestion by 37-92 min and 46-59 min during morning and evening peaks, respectively, leading to a 24-82% and 27-56% surge in carbon emissions. The conversion of all these vehicles to taxis would result in a direct paralysis of Beijing's road transport network, with a corresponding increase in carbon emissions of between 289% and 556% and 333% and 614%, respectively.These outcomes emphasize the substantial efficacy of urban rail transit in curbing traffic congestion and carbon emissions.
城市轨道交通作为一种高效且环保的交通方式，在缓解交通拥堵和降低城市碳排放方面发挥着关键作用。尽管该领域的学者做出了重大贡献，但围绕城市轨道交通运营阶段碳排放量化的争论依然存在，尤其是在评估其对减少地面交通拥堵的影响方面。本研究考察了北京早晚高峰时段的客流量，假设所有原本乘坐城市轨道交通的乘客在这些时段改乘公交车和出租车。基于此假设，在分析实际交通运营数据的基础上开发了一个交通拥堵预测模型。通过该模型，本研究计算了各种情景下的潜在拥堵时长，采用自下而上的碳排放估算方法来分析对碳排放的影响。2015年至2021年的结果表明，早晚高峰期间用公交车替代城市轨道交通可能分别使拥堵增加37 - 92分钟和46 - 59分钟，导致碳排放分别激增24% - 82%和27% - 56%。若将所有这些车辆转换为出租车，将导致北京道路交通网络直接瘫痪，碳排放相应增加289% - 556%和333% - 614%。这些结果强调了城市轨道交通在抑制交通拥堵和碳排放方面的显著成效。
