Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, 210023, China.
Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing, 210023, China.
Nat Commun. 2022 Sep 9;13(1):5315. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9.
Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China's carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further incorporating changes in CH and NO emissions in association with CNCN together will alleviate global warming by 0.21 °C and 0.32 °C for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18 °C for SSP2-4.5 over the mid-term, but no significant impacts are shown for all SSPs in the near term. Divergent responses in alleviated warming are seen at regional scales. The results provide a useful reference for the global stocktake, which assesses the collective progress towards the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.
预测各个国家实现碳中和对未来全球变暖的缓解程度，对于描绘国家气候责任非常重要，但目前这方面的量化研究还很不完善。在这里，我们表明，中国的碳中和（CNCN）可以分别将长期在共享社会经济路径（SSP）3-7.0 和 5-8.5 情景下的全球变暖降低 0.48°C 和 0.40°C，分别占全球变暖的 14%和 9%。进一步将与 CNCN 相关的 CH 和 NO 排放变化纳入考虑后，在 SSP1-2.6 和 SSP2-4.5 情景下，长期来看全球变暖将分别降低 0.21°C 和 0.32°C，在 SSP2-4.5 情景下中期甚至降低 0.18°C，但在近期所有 SSP 情景下均未显示出显著影响。在区域尺度上，缓解变暖的响应存在差异。研究结果为全球盘点提供了有益的参考，该盘点评估了《巴黎协定》气候目标的集体进展情况。
