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分析老年髋部骨折患者术后1年内死亡的相关危险因素,并评估年龄校正的Charlson合并症指数在预测这种死亡风险中的价值。

To analyze the risk factors associated with mortality within 1 year after surgery in elderly patients with hip fracture and to assess the value of the age-corrected Charlson comorbidity index in predicting this mortality risk.

作者信息

Xiao Yu-Chen, Ailihemaiti Ayidan, Zheyiken Jiangannuer

机构信息

Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital of Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Yining, China.

出版信息

Medicine (Baltimore). 2025 Jan 17;104(3):e41263. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000041263.

Abstract

To investigate the determining risk factors for 1-year postoperative mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture and to assess the efficacy of the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) in predicting the risk of death. This study adopted a retrospective analysis method to focus on 652 elderly patients who underwent hip fracture surgery between January 2018 and November 2022 in our hospital. By systematically combing the patients' medical records, relevant data were collected and analyzed in depth for their association with morbidity and mortality rates within 1 year. In the 1-year follow-up for 652 elderly patients who underwent hip fracture surgery, the proportion of deaths due to disease amounted to 21.5% (140/652). Univariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model revealed that age, number of hospital days, ACCI, and the occurrence of postoperative pneumonia were significantly associated with the rate of morbidity and mortality within 1 year. Further multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.087 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.060-1.114]), ACCI (HR, 1.645 [95% CI, 1.548-1.747]), and postoperative pneumonia (HR, 2.353 [95% CI, 1.624-3.408]) served as independent risk factors that significantly influenced the patients' 1-year survival. The ACCI excelled in predicting the risk of 1-year postoperative mortality, with an AUC of 0.912 for its prediction model and a specificity and sensitivity of 0.834 and 0.871, respectively, when the threshold was set at 5.5. The results of this study emphasize that age, ACCI, and postoperative pneumonia are key risk factors affecting the survival of elderly patients with hip fracture at 1-year postoperatively. ACCI, as an effective predictive tool, can provide an important reference for the clinical assessment of patients' postoperative risk and help precision medical decision-making.

摘要

探讨老年髋部骨折患者术后1年死亡率的决定性危险因素,并评估年龄校正Charlson合并症指数(ACCI)在预测死亡风险方面的有效性。本研究采用回顾性分析方法,聚焦于2018年1月至2022年11月在我院接受髋部骨折手术的652例老年患者。通过系统梳理患者病历,收集相关数据并深入分析其与1年内发病率和死亡率的关联。在对652例接受髋部骨折手术的老年患者进行的1年随访中,因病死亡比例达21.5%(140/652)。使用Cox比例风险模型进行单因素分析显示,年龄、住院天数、ACCI以及术后肺炎的发生与1年内的发病率和死亡率显著相关。进一步的多因素Cox回归分析证实,年龄(风险比[HR],1.087[95%置信区间[CI],1.060 - 1.114])、ACCI(HR,1.645[95%CI,1.548 - 1.747])和术后肺炎(HR,2.353[95%CI,1.624 - 3.408])是显著影响患者1年生存率的独立危险因素。ACCI在预测术后1年死亡风险方面表现出色,其预测模型的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.912,当阈值设定为5.5时,特异性和敏感性分别为0.834和0.871。本研究结果强调,年龄、ACCI和术后肺炎是影响老年髋部骨折患者术后1年生存的关键危险因素。ACCI作为一种有效的预测工具,可为临床评估患者术后风险提供重要参考,有助于精准医疗决策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a016/11749506/d9c85b18ce79/medi-104-e41263-g001.jpg

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