Gao Yujing, Cui Jinglan, Zhang Xiuming, Hoogenboom Gerrit, Wallach Daniel, Huang Yuqi, Reis Stefan, Lin Tao, Gu Baojing
College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
College of Biosystems Engineering and Food Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Nat Food. 2025 Mar;6(3):260-272. doi: 10.1038/s43016-024-01113-8. Epub 2025 Jan 22.
Rice is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) and nitrogen pollution. While best management practices have been developed to enhance the sustainability of rice production under current climates, their adaptability and efficacy under future climate scenarios remain uncertain. Here we evaluated 49 best management practices across global grid cells of rice-producing areas in terms of increasing rice production, reducing GHG emissions and minimizing nitrogen pollution under future climate conditions. Optimal climate adaptation measures were assigned to each grid cell. We show that implementing the proposed adaptation strategy could increase global rice production by 36% while reducing GHG emissions and nitrogen losses by 23% and 32%, respectively. This approach could lead to a global benefit of US$117 billion for food supply, resource saving, climate mitigation and environmental protection, with total implementation costs of US$13 billion. Establishing practical and cost-effective adaptation strategies is critical for the sustainable development of the global agricultural system in the face of climate challenges.
水稻是温室气体（GHG）和氮污染的主要来源。虽然已经制定了最佳管理措施以提高当前气候条件下水稻生产的可持续性，但其在未来气候情景下的适应性和效果仍不确定。在此，我们从在未来气候条件下增加水稻产量、减少温室气体排放以及将氮污染降至最低的角度，对全球水稻种植区网格单元的49种最佳管理措施进行了评估。为每个网格单元分配了最佳气候适应措施。我们表明，实施所提出的适应策略可使全球水稻产量提高36%，同时分别减少23%的温室气体排放和32%的氮损失。这种方法可为粮食供应、资源节约、气候缓解和环境保护带来1170亿美元的全球效益，而总实施成本为130亿美元。面对气候挑战，制定切实可行且具有成本效益的适应策略对全球农业系统的可持续发展至关重要。
