Long-Term Trends and Ecological Risks of Heavy Metal Accumulation in Cultivated Land of Songnen Plain, China.

Heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils poses a serious threat to food security. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct risk assessments and issue early warnings about high levels of metal contamination for the sustained prosperity of agriculture. To assess the risks, identify the sources, quantify the amounts, and determine the extent of pollution from seven heavy metals, as well as to provide early warnings, 78 soil samples were collected from farmed lands in the Songnen Plain of Jilin Province. The average concentrations of Zn, Cu, Mn, Pb, Cd, Ni, and As were found to be 2.05, 1.5, 0.2, 1.09, 2.68, 1.53, and 1.17 times higher than the background values of Chinese soils, respectively. Source analysis indicated that toxic Pb originates from vehicle exhaust emission, while Cd, Cu, and Ni are attributed to industrial activities. Zn and As are likely associated with agricultural practices, and Mn predominantly stems from natural environmental sources. The geo-accumulation index suggests relatively high, accumulation levels for Zn, Cu, Mn, and Pb. Meanwhile, the single-factor pollution index indicates elevated pollution levels of Zn, Cu, and Cd. Potential ecological risk assessment reveals that certain areas within Changchun and Baicheng cities exhibit higher ecological risks. Notably, Cd has the highest potential ecological risk index (RI) of the seven heavy metals and warrants special attention. By analyzing annual pollutant accumulations, predictions can be made about the heavy metal content in four cities within the Songnen Plain, enabling the issuance of early warnings regarding soil heavy metal risks. The findings suggest that without proactive measures to mitigate heavy metal accumulation in soils, Changchun and Songyuan will reach severe pollution levels by 2031 and 2029, respectively.