Asynchronous shifts in the demographics of two wave-swept kelp species (Laminariales) after nearly four decades.

Kelp forests are among the most abundant and productive marine ecosystems but are under threat from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. Although knowledge is growing about how the abundance and distribution of kelp forests are changing, much less is known about the "non-lethal" effects that global change is having on the performance and health of kelp populations in areas where they persist. Here we assessed the age distribution of two common stipitate kelp species, Laminaria setchelli and Pterygophora californica, at Wizard Islet in Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Canada, and compared these data to historical demographic data collected by De Wreede (1984) and Klinger and DeWreede (1988) from the same site between 1981 and 1983. We observed that L. setchelli populations in 2020 were younger and less evenly aged than the same populations sampled nearly four decades prior, while the P. californica population was composed of older individuals on average than at the historical time point. Although the drivers of these demographic changes remain unclear, Barkley Sound has experienced substantial changes in the physical and biological environment over the past decade that could be responsible for these patterns. Given that the size of an individual and its probability of reproduction increases with age, shifting demographics may impact the reproductive output of each population, potentially altering the competitive relationships between co-occurring species. Changes in size distribution may also influence ecosystem-level processes such as habitat complexity or productivity.