Zhao Shimeng, Zhang Zongxian, Gao Changyu, Dong Yiding, Jing Zeyao, Du Lixia, Hou Xiangyang
Key Laboratory of Efficient Forage Production Mode, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affair, College of Grassland Science, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China.
Plants (Basel). 2025 Jan 20;14(2):293. doi: 10.3390/plants14020293.
Grassland degradation is a serious ecological issue in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China. Utilizing native grasses for the restoration of degraded grasslands is an effective technological approach. is a superior indigenous grass species for grassland ecological restoration in northern China. Therefore, the excavation of potential distribution areas of and important ecological factors affecting its distribution is crucial for grassland conservation and restoration of degraded grasslands. Based on 357 data points collected on the natural distribution of , this study employs the jackknife method and Pearson correlation analysis to screen out 23 variables affecting its spatial distribution. The MaxEnt model was used herein to predict the current suitable distribution area of and the suitable distribution of under different SSP scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85) for future climate. The results showed the following: (1) Mean diurnal temperature range, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and elevation are the major factors impacting the distribution of . (2) Under the current climatic conditions, is mainly distributed in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China; in addition, certain suitable areas also exist in parts of Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Jilin. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable areas for are generally the same as at present, with slight changes in area under different scenarios, with the largest expansion of 97,222 km of suitable area in 2021-2040 under the SSP1-26 scenario and the largest shrinkage of potential suitable area in 2061-2080 under the SSP2-45 scenario, with 87,983 km. Notably, the northern boundary of the middle- and high-suitability areas is reduced, while the northeastern boundary and some areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin are expanded. The results of this study revealed the suitable climatic conditions and potential distribution range of , which can provide a reference for the conservation, introduction, and cultivation of in new ecological zones, avoiding the blind introduction of inappropriate habitats, and is also crucial for sustaining the economic benefits associated with ecological services.
草地退化是中国北方农牧交错带严重的生态问题。利用乡土草种恢复退化草地是一种有效的技术途径。[草种名称]是中国北方草地生态恢复的优良乡土草种。因此，挖掘[草种名称]潜在分布区及影响其分布的重要生态因子，对于草地保护和退化草地恢复至关重要。基于收集到的357个[草种名称]自然分布数据点，本研究采用刀切法和Pearson相关性分析筛选出23个影响其空间分布的变量。本文利用MaxEnt模型预测了[草种名称]当前的适宜分布区以及未来气候不同SSP情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）下[草种名称]的适宜分布。结果表明：（1）日平均气温较差、年平均气温、最湿季度降水量和海拔是影响[草种名称]分布的主要因素。（2）在当前气候条件下，[草种名称]主要分布在中国北方农牧交错带；此外，新疆、西藏、四川、黑龙江和吉林部分地区也存在一定适宜区域。（3）在未来气候变化情景下，[草种名称]适宜区域总体与当前相同，不同情景下面积略有变化，其中SSP1-2.6情景下2021-2040年适宜面积扩张最大，为97222平方千米，SSP2-4.5情景下2061-2080年潜在适宜面积收缩最大，为87983平方千米。值得注意的是，中高适宜区北界缩小，而黑龙江和吉林的东北边界及部分区域扩大。本研究结果揭示了[草种名称]适宜的气候条件和潜在分布范围，可为[草种名称]在新生态区的保护、引种和栽培提供参考，避免盲目引入不适宜生境，对于维持与[草种名称]生态服务相关的经济效益也至关重要。
