Kumar G Anil, Pandey Anamika, Dandona Rakhi
Public Health Foundation of India, House No. 60, 4th Floor, Lane 2, Part of Saidulajab Extension, Near Saket Metro Station Gate No. 2, New Delhi, 110030, India.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
BMC Med. 2025 Jan 29;23(1):51. doi: 10.1186/s12916-025-03895-5.
India's large youth population presents a significant opportunity to harness the demographic dividend. The disease burden in adolescents could be a hindrance for the future economy if not appropriately addressed.
We utilised the data on the number of adolescent deaths and attributable years lived with disability (morbidity) in every state of India as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. We estimated the economic impact as the cost of lost output due to premature adolescent deaths and morbidity for every state of India in 2021, using an output-based method. The cost of lost output is reported in US Dollars (USD) and as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for all diseases/conditions together, and separately for communicable diseases (CDs), non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries.
The lost output from premature deaths and morbidity attributable to adolescents was USD 9.87 (95% CI 9.04-10.71) and USD 28.13 (95% CI 20.53-37.71) billion respectively, in India in 2021. The total economic loss of USD 38.01 billion (95% CI 29.57-48.41) was 1.30% (1.01-1.65) of India's GDP. The total economic loss as a percentage of the state's GDP varied 3.42 times between the states in 2021, ranging from 2.43% in Bihar to 0.71% in Sikkim. The total economic loss due to CDs, NCDs, and injuries was estimated at 0.45%, 0.69% and 0.16% of India's GDP in 2021, with significant variations across the states.
Strengthening the Indian Adolescent Health Strategy to address the diseases/ conditions contributing most to the total economic loss is needed to facilitate substantial avoidance of the high economic losses attributable to adolescent premature deaths and morbidity in India.
印度庞大的青年人口为利用人口红利提供了重大机遇。如果得不到妥善解决，青少年的疾病负担可能会成为未来经济的阻碍。
作为《2021年全球疾病、伤害和风险因素负担研究》（GBD 2021）的一部分，我们利用了印度每个邦青少年死亡人数和归因于残疾的生存年数（发病率）的数据。我们采用基于产出的方法，估计了2021年印度每个邦因青少年过早死亡和发病导致的产出损失成本所带来的经济影响。产出损失成本以美元（USD）报告，并作为所有疾病/状况合计占国内生产总值（GDP）的百分比，以及分别针对传染病（CD）、非传染性疾病（NCD）和伤害占GDP的百分比。
2021年，印度因青少年过早死亡和发病导致的产出损失分别为98.7亿美元（95%置信区间90.4 - 107.1亿美元）和281.3亿美元（95%置信区间205.3 - 377.1亿美元）。380.1亿美元（95%置信区间295.7 - 484.1亿美元）的总经济损失占印度GDP的1.30%（1.01 - 1.65%）。2021年，各邦总经济损失占邦GDP的百分比在各邦之间相差3.42倍，从比哈尔邦的2.43%到锡金邦的0.71%不等。2021年，因传染病、非传染性疾病和伤害导致的总经济损失估计分别占印度GDP的0.45%、0.69%和0.16%，各邦之间存在显著差异。
需要加强印度青少年健康战略，以应对导致总经济损失最大的疾病/状况，从而在很大程度上避免印度因青少年过早死亡和发病造成的高额经济损失。
