基于准自然实验证据的碳排放交易对绿色全要素生产率的影响

The impact of carbon emissions trading on green total factor productivity based on evidence from a quasi-natural experiment.

作者信息

Hu Haisheng

机构信息

Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Lodz, ul. Prez, prez. Gabriela Narutowicza 68, 90-136, Łódź, Poland.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 29;15(1):3642. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-88318-4.

Abstract

Based on a balanced panel dataset of 272 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2022, this paper systematically investigates the impact of the carbon emissions trading system on green total factor productivity and its underlying mechanisms from an integrated perspective of overall, dynamic, and spatial dimensions. The findings reveal that (1) the carbon emissions trading system significantly enhances regional total factor productivity, primarily by optimizing resource allocation efficiency and strengthening regional competitiveness. (2) From a dynamic perspective, the policy effect exhibited a U-shaped relationship: from 2013 to 2018, green total factor productivity was suppressed due to underdeveloped market mechanisms and the policy environment; after 2018, with market maturation and policy stabilization, the policy effects improved significantly. (3) Spatial effect analysis indicates that the emissions trading system positively influences pilot regions but generates a siphon effect on nonpilot regions, leading to regional performance divergence, although the overall impact remains positive. (4) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy has more pronounced effects in regions with higher carbon intensity, stricter environmental regulations, better infrastructure, and richer resource endowments, reflecting significant regional disparities in policy effectiveness. This study provides empirical evidence and theoretical insights to optimize carbon trading policies and achieve regional green development.

摘要

基于2000年至2022年272个地级市的平衡面板数据集,本文从总体、动态和空间维度的综合视角,系统研究了碳排放交易体系对绿色全要素生产率的影响及其潜在机制。研究结果表明:(1)碳排放交易体系显著提高了区域全要素生产率,主要是通过优化资源配置效率和增强区域竞争力实现的。(2)从动态角度看,政策效应呈现出U型关系:2013年至2018年,由于市场机制和政策环境不完善,绿色全要素生产率受到抑制;2018年之后,随着市场成熟和政策稳定,政策效应显著改善。(3)空间效应分析表明,碳排放交易体系对试点地区有积极影响,但对非试点地区产生虹吸效应,导致区域绩效出现差异,不过总体影响仍为正向。(4)异质性分析表明,该政策在碳强度较高、环境规制较严格、基础设施较好和资源禀赋较丰富的地区效果更为显著,反映出政策效果存在显著的区域差异。本研究为优化碳交易政策和实现区域绿色发展提供了实证依据和理论见解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6638/11779877/0681f5b9179b/41598_2025_88318_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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