School of Economics, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815, China.
Reading Academy, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 28;19(15):9272. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19159272.
Promoting the carbon emission trading system has been a crucial measure for China to fulfill its carbon neutrality commitment. Taking the carbon emission trading system implemented in China in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment, based on the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2019, this paper adopts the difference-in-difference (DID) method and the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the impact of the carbon emission trading system on energy conservation and emission reduction in pilot provinces and cities. The research findings reveal that, on the whole, the carbon emission trading system has significantly promoted the process of energy conservation and emission reduction in pilot provinces and cities. Other robustness tests, including the parallel trend test, PSM-DID stationarity test and placebo test have also been passed. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the most significant policy effects occur in Tianjin and Shanghai, followed by Hubei. The emission reduction effect of Guangdong displays a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. The test results demonstrate that the carbon emission trading system can strengthen the process of energy conservation and emission reduction by optimizing the industrial structure and energy structure. In conclusion, policy makers should coordinate the relationship between the government and the market and speed up the transformation of environmental policy from command control type to market incentive type. Meanwhile, improve the property right system and accelerate the promotion of carbon emission trading pilot policies in China according to local conditions. By encouraging technological innovation, a new market-oriented path of energy conservation and emission reduction guided by the enhancement of energy efficiency and the optimization of energy and industrial structures ought to be formed.
推动碳排放交易体系建设是中国实现碳达峰碳中和承诺的关键举措。本文以中国 2013 年开展的碳交易试点为准自然实验，利用 2005-2019 年中国省级面板数据，采用双重差分法（Difference-in-Difference，DID）和合成控制法（Synthetic Control Method，SCM）评估碳交易政策对试点省市节能减排的影响。研究结果表明，总体来看，碳交易政策显著促进了试点省市的节能减排进程。进一步的平行趋势检验、PSM-DID 平稳性检验和安慰剂检验均通过稳健性检验。异质性分析发现，天津和上海的政策效果最为显著，其次是湖北，广东的减排效果呈现先降后升的趋势。研究结果表明，碳交易政策可以通过优化产业结构和能源结构来强化节能减排进程。因此，政策制定者应协调政府与市场的关系，加快环境政策从命令控制型向市场激励型转变。同时，完善产权制度，因地制宜地加快推进中国碳交易试点政策。通过鼓励技术创新，形成以提高能源效率和优化能源及产业结构为导向的市场主导型节能减排新路径。
