Jackson Elaine, Curley Lee, Leverick Fiona, Lages Martin
School of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
School of Psychology, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK.
Psychiatr Psychol Law. 2024 Jan 11;32(1):23-41. doi: 10.1080/13218719.2023.2272912. eCollection 2025.
We study the effect of the Scottish three-verdict system (guilty, not guilty, not proven) and the Anglo-American two-verdict system (guilty, not guilty) on juror decisions by combining data sets from 10 mock trials reported in suitable studies. A logistic regression with random effects uses the exact number of convictions and acquittals in 10 mock trials from a total of 1778 jurors to reliably estimate the effect of verdict system. We found a statistically significant verdict effect suggesting that the odds for a conviction by a juror are about 0.6 times or 40% lower under the three-verdict system than under a conventional two-verdict system. Possible explanations and implications of this verdict effect are discussed. This finding helps to better understand juror decision making in the context of the current reform of the Scottish three-verdict system into a two-verdict system.
我们通过合并适当研究中报告的10次模拟审判的数据集，研究了苏格兰三裁决制度（有罪、无罪、证据不足）和英美式两裁决制度（有罪、无罪）对陪审员决策的影响。采用随机效应的逻辑回归使用了来自1778名陪审员参与的10次模拟审判中的定罪和无罪释放的确切数量，以可靠地估计裁决制度的影响。我们发现了一个具有统计学意义的裁决效应，表明在三裁决制度下，陪审员定罪的几率比传统的两裁决制度低约0.6倍或40%。讨论了这种裁决效应的可能解释和影响。这一发现有助于更好地理解在苏格兰三裁决制度当前改革为两裁决制度的背景下陪审员的决策过程。
