Occhipinti Jo-An, Prodan Ante, Hynes William, Buchanan John, Green Roy, Burrow Sharan, Eyre Harris A, Skinner Adam, Hickie Ian B, Heffernan Mark, Song Yun Ju Christine, Ujdur Goran, Tanner Marcel
Mental Wealth Initiative, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Level 4, Moore College CG2, 1 King Street, Newtown, NSW, 2042 Australia.
School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia.
Bull World Health Organ. 2025 Feb 1;103(2):155-163. doi: 10.2471/BLT.24.291950. Epub 2025 Jan 2.
Economic and labour policies have a considerable influence on health and well-being through direct financial impacts, and by shaping social and physical environments. Strong economies are important for public health investment and employment, yet the rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape economies, presenting challenges beyond mere temporary market disruption. Generative AI can perform non-routine cognitive tasks, previously unattainable though traditional automation, creating new efficiencies. While this technology offers opportunities for innovation and productivity, its labour-displacing potential raises serious concerns about economic stability and social equity, both of which are critical to health. Job displacement driven by generative AI could worsen income inequality, shrink middle-class opportunities and reduce consumer demand, triggering recessionary pressures. In this article, we propose the existence of an AI-capital-to-labour ratio threshold beyond which a self-reinforcing cycle of recessionary pressures may emerge, and which market forces alone cannot correct. Traditional responses to such pressures, like fiscal stimulus or monetary easing, may be ineffective in addressing structural disruptions to labour markets caused by generative AI. We call for a proactive global response to harness the benefits of generative AI while mitigating risks. This response should focus on reorienting economic systems towards collective well-being, as emphasized in the World Health Assembly resolution and the United Nations' Global Digital Compact. Integrated strategies that combine fiscal policy, regulation and social policies are critical to ensuring generative AI advances societal health and equity while avoiding harm from excessive job displacement.
经济和劳动政策通过直接的财政影响以及塑造社会和物质环境，对健康和福祉有着相当大的影响。强劲的经济对于公共卫生投资和就业至关重要，然而生成式人工智能（AI）的迅速崛起有可能重塑经济，带来的挑战不仅仅是暂时的市场混乱。生成式人工智能可以执行以前通过传统自动化无法实现的非常规认知任务，从而创造新的效率。虽然这项技术为创新和生产力提供了机会，但其取代劳动力的潜力引发了对经济稳定和社会公平的严重担忧，而这两者对健康都至关重要。由生成式人工智能驱动的工作岗位替代可能会加剧收入不平等、减少中产阶级机会并降低消费者需求，引发衰退压力。在本文中，我们提出存在一个人工智能资本与劳动力比率阈值，超过该阈值可能会出现衰退压力的自我强化循环，且仅靠市场力量无法纠正。对这种压力的传统应对措施，如财政刺激或货币宽松，可能无法有效解决生成式人工智能对劳动力市场造成的结构性破坏。我们呼吁全球积极应对，在利用生成式人工智能的好处的同时减轻风险。这种应对措施应侧重于按照世界卫生大会决议和联合国《全球数字契约》所强调的，使经济体系重新朝着集体福祉的方向发展。结合财政政策、监管和社会政策的综合战略对于确保生成式人工智能促进社会健康和公平，同时避免因过度的工作岗位替代造成危害至关重要。
