Salubi Eunice A, Gizaw Zemichael, Schuster-Wallace Corinne J, Pietroniro Alain
Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5C8, Canada; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 3H5, Canada E-mail:
Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5C8, Canada; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 3H5, Canada; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
J Water Health. 2025 Jan;23(1):58-78. doi: 10.2166/wh.2024.314. Epub 2024 Dec 11.
Risk of waterborne diseases (WBDs) persists in temperate regions. The extent of influence of climate-related factors on the risk of specific WBDs in a changing climate and the projections of future climate scenarios on WBDs in temperate regions are unclear. A systematic review was conducted to identify specific waterborne pathogens and diseases prevalent in temperate region literature and transmission cycle associations with a changing climate. Projections of WBD risk based on future climate scenarios and models used to assess future disease risk were identified. Seventy-five peer-reviewed full-text articles for temperate regions published in the English language were included in this review after a search of Scopus and Web of Science databases from 2010 to 2023. Using thematic analysis, climate-related drivers impacting WBD risk were identified. Risk of WBDs was influenced mostly by weather (rainfall: 22% and heavy rainfall: 19%) across the majority of temperate regions and hydrological (streamflow: 50%) factors in Europe. Future climate scenarios suggest that WBD risk is likely to increase in temperate regions. Given the need to understand changes and potential feedback across fate, transport and exposure pathways, more studies should combine data-driven and process-based models to better assess future risks using model simulations
温带地区仍然存在水传播疾病（WBDs）的风险。在气候变化的背景下，气候相关因素对特定水传播疾病风险的影响程度以及未来气候情景对温带地区水传播疾病的预测尚不清楚。本研究进行了一项系统综述，以确定温带地区文献中普遍存在的特定水传播病原体和疾病，以及与气候变化相关的传播周期关联。还确定了基于未来气候情景的水传播疾病风险预测以及用于评估未来疾病风险的模型。在对Scopus和Web of Science数据库进行2010年至2023年的搜索后，本综述纳入了75篇以英文发表的温带地区同行评审全文文章。通过主题分析，确定了影响水传播疾病风险的气候相关驱动因素。在大多数温带地区，水传播疾病的风险主要受天气（降雨：22%，暴雨：19%）影响，而在欧洲则受水文因素（河流流量：50%）影响。未来气候情景表明，温带地区的水传播疾病风险可能会增加。鉴于需要了解物质归宿、迁移和暴露途径的变化及潜在反馈，更多研究应结合数据驱动模型和基于过程的模型，通过模型模拟更好地评估未来风险。
