Cai Ligan, Zhao Junhao, Chen Jian
Soil and Water Conservation Work Station, Subei County Agriculture, Rural Affairs and Water Affairs Bureau, Subei Mongol Autonomous County, Gansu, China.
College of Veterinary Medicine, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 30;20(1):e0317769. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0317769. eCollection 2025.
Evaluating the dynamic co-evolution and feedback mechanisms within socio-ecological systems is crucial for determining the resilience and sustainability of environmental governance strategies. The grass-livestock system, as a complex entity encompassing livestock nutrition, foraging behavior, vegetation ecology, pastoralists' economic income, and policy interventions, indicates that any change in a single element may trigger a chain reaction within the system. This paper uses a system dynamics approach to construct a simulation model of the grass-livestock system in alpine pastoral areas, simulating the long-term dynamic co-evolution of the socio-ecological system in the Qilian Mountains region of China. Four optimization schemes were proposed, and the synergistic development of the grass-livestock system in alpine pastoral areas under each scheme was simulated. The results show that, under the premise of sustainable use of grazing-based artificial grassland, the combination of reasonable use of fenced grasslands and cooperative management by pastoralists can effectively control livestock numbers, ensure pastoralists' income, and maintain grassland quality within the next 20 years, thereby achieving coordinated socio-economic and ecological development. Additionally, optimizing feed supply can significantly improve grass production, livestock weight, and income. Therefore, it is recommended that alpine pastoral areas prioritize both grassland ecological management and development, adopt grassland restoration technologies, strengthen the management of artificial grasslands, set reasonable grazing bans, develop pastoralist cooperative organizations and design internal operational mechanisms.
评估社会生态系统中的动态共同进化和反馈机制对于确定环境治理策略的恢复力和可持续性至关重要。草畜系统作为一个包含牲畜营养、觅食行为、植被生态、牧民经济收入和政策干预的复杂实体，表明系统中任何一个要素的变化都可能引发连锁反应。本文采用系统动力学方法构建了高寒牧区草畜系统的模拟模型，模拟了中国祁连山区社会生态系统的长期动态共同进化。提出了四种优化方案，并模拟了各方案下高寒牧区草畜系统的协同发展。结果表明，在可持续利用放牧型人工草地的前提下，合理利用围栏草地与牧民合作管理相结合，能够在未来20年内有效控制牲畜数量，保障牧民收入，维持草地质量，从而实现社会经济和生态的协调发展。此外，优化饲料供应可显著提高牧草产量、牲畜体重和收入。因此，建议高寒牧区优先考虑草地生态管理和发展，采用草地恢复技术，加强人工草地管理，设定合理的禁牧期，发展牧民合作组织并设计内部运行机制。
