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基于包含气候变化指标的指标评估体系的日本粮食安全演变

The evolution of food security in Japan-Based on an indicator evaluation system including climate change indicators.

作者信息

Li Caixia

机构信息

Graduate School of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Feb 3;20(2):e0317180. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0317180. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0317180
PMID:39899508
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11790163/
Abstract

As climate change intensifies, food security has received widespread attention. This study examines the development of Japan's food security index and its relationship with climate change. From these findings, a food security indicator system for Japan was established. The food security system has six dimensions: availability, nutrition, climate change, society, economics, and fertilizer. The factors affecting food security are complex and variable, and this paper adds the Fertilizer Security Index (FSI) to the previous studies. The overuse of fertilizers directly contributes to soil and atmospheric pollution, which can indirectly lead to issues of food quality insecurity. Including this factor within the food security system is fully justified. This enhances the precision of the food security index system to some degree. The results showed that Japan's overall food security index exhibited a slight downward trend from 0.113 in 1980 to 0.099 in 2022. Food security reached its lowest point of about 0.067 in 1993. In addition, all five indicators, except the fertilizer index, put pressure on the food security index. Due to the uncertainty inherent in climate change, specifically its ambiguous positive and negative impacts on food security, the Climate Change Security Index provides detailed evidence in this paper supporting whether climate change contributes to or undermines food security. Finally, the study put forward recommendations to ensure food security.

摘要

随着气候变化加剧,粮食安全受到广泛关注。本研究考察了日本粮食安全指数的发展及其与气候变化的关系。基于这些研究结果,建立了日本的粮食安全指标体系。该粮食安全体系有六个维度:可获得性、营养、气候变化、社会、经济和肥料。影响粮食安全的因素复杂多变,本文在以往研究基础上增加了肥料安全指数(FSI)。肥料过度使用直接导致土壤和大气污染,间接引发粮食质量不安全问题。将该因素纳入粮食安全体系具有充分合理性。这在一定程度上提高了粮食安全指数体系的精确性。结果显示,日本整体粮食安全指数从1980年的0.113略微下降至2022年的0.099。1993年粮食安全降至最低点,约为0.067。此外,除肥料指数外,其他五个指标均对粮食安全指数构成压力。由于气候变化存在不确定性,特别是其对粮食安全的正负影响不明确,本文中的气候变化安全指数提供了详细证据,以支持气候变化对粮食安全是有促进作用还是产生破坏作用。最后,该研究提出了确保粮食安全的建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/353c/11790163/6cabc456a910/pone.0317180.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/353c/11790163/6cabc456a910/pone.0317180.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/353c/11790163/6cabc456a910/pone.0317180.g001.jpg

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多维粮食贫困:来自当代日本低收入单身母亲的证据
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