Bergene Tegegn, Simane Belay, Abi Meskerem
Center for Foos Security Studies, Addis Ababa University College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, 1176, Ethiopia.
Department of geography and Environment Studies, College of Social Science and Humanities, Woalita Sodo University, Wolaita_sodo, South Region, 1138, Ethiopia.
F1000Res. 2025 Feb 11;14:188. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.160204.1. eCollection 2025.
Climate change adaptation is an incomparable prior measure to tackle unpreventable climate calamities to enhance smallholder farming and food security. This empirical study assesses smallholder farmers' adaptation options to climate change or variability for achieving food security.
Data were gathered from a survey of 328 respondents, selected randomly and proportionally from three different agro-ecological zones. Additional qualitative insights were collected through focus group discussions and interviews with key informants to reinforce the findings. The multinomial endogenous switching regression, independent t-test and the instrumental variable (2sls) regression were used as method of analysis.
The result indicated that ACAC impacted food security positively and significantly in the study area at a percent rate of 12.4, 16.3,18 and 27.7 when households adopting one, two, three, and four ACAC, respectively, in the HFBM case, and the same meaning was obtained from other food security measuring tools. However, the rate and manner of change differ at different agroecologies, signifying careful discernment when applying ACAC at different spacial areas, especially in agroecology. The change in agroecology declares that midlands have a negative likelihood propensity for climate adaptation compared to highlands, while lowlands have positive and insignificant implications. The mean comparison from the independent t-test showed statistically significant adopters and non-adopters food security measures, which also informed the positive contribution of CACA on households' food security. Interestingly, factors such as distance to water sources, land size, ox ownership, crop income, and access to credit influenced food security in diverse ways depending on regional and contextual specifics.
Thus, ACAC impacts food security differently at different rates in different agroecologies in the area. Integrated and tailored technical, institutional, and policy interventions are needed to tackle the calamities of climate change leap to smallholder farming and food security.
适应气候变化是应对不可避免的气候灾难以促进小农农业和粮食安全的一项无比重要的优先措施。本实证研究评估了小农为实现粮食安全而对气候变化或变率的适应方案。
数据来自对328名受访者的调查，这些受访者是从三个不同的农业生态区随机且按比例选取的。通过焦点小组讨论和与关键信息提供者的访谈收集了更多定性见解，以强化研究结果。采用多项内生转换回归、独立t检验和工具变量（两阶段最小二乘法）回归作为分析方法。
结果表明，在家庭粮食安全模型（HFBM）中，当分别采用一项、两项、三项和四项适应气候变化的农业措施（ACAC）时，ACAC对研究区域的粮食安全有显著的正向影响，百分比分别为12.4、16.3、18和27.7，从其他粮食安全衡量工具中也得到了相同的结果。然而，不同农业生态区的变化速率和方式有所不同，这意味着在不同空间区域应用ACAC时要谨慎辨别，尤其是在农业生态方面。农业生态的变化表明，与高地相比，中部地区气候适应的可能性较低，而低地则有正向但不显著的影响。独立t检验的均值比较显示，采用者和未采用者的粮食安全措施在统计上有显著差异，这也说明了ACAC对家庭粮食安全的积极贡献。有趣的是，诸如到水源的距离、土地面积、耕牛拥有量、作物收入和获得信贷等因素，根据区域和背景的具体情况，以不同方式影响着粮食安全。
因此，在该地区不同的农业生态区，ACAC对粮食安全的影响速率不同。需要综合且量身定制的技术、制度和政策干预措施，以应对气候变化给小农农业和粮食安全带来的灾难。
