Zhang Jingfan, Lu Zhe, Zhou Jinge, Qin Guoming, Bai Yicheng, Sanders Christian J, Macreadie Peter I, Yuan Jiacan, Huang Xingyun, Wang Faming
Xiaoliang Research Station of Tropical Coastal Ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, the CAS Engineering Laboratory for Ecological Restoration of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Feb 3;16(1):1297. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-56587-2.
Mangrove loss has reduced its carbon (C) sink function and ecosystem services. To effectively allocate climate finance for mangrove restoration, a thorough assessment of restoration potential is necessary. Here we show a net loss of ecosystem service value (ESV) of 29.2 billion USD ($) due to land changes in mangroves from 1996 to 2019. The estimated mangrove ESV in 2019 amounts to $894 billion yr, mainly provided by regulating and provisioning services (57.4% and 19.7%). Over the next two decades, we project that the restoration of mangroves would necessitate an investment of $40.0-52.1 billion, yielding net gains in ESV of $231-725 billion. The global benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of mangrove restoration ranges from 6.35 to 15.0, demonstrating that such projects are highly cost-effective. Furthermore, an estimated of 19.4 Tg C can be sequestrated in mangrove soils based on a 20-year mangrove restoration program, which can generate $68.6-$236 million via blue C trading. Our findings highlight the significant opportunities for blue C restoration projects to mitigate climate change and support livelihoods.
红树林的减少削弱了其碳汇功能和生态系统服务。为了有效地为红树林恢复分配气候资金，有必要对恢复潜力进行全面评估。在此，我们展示了1996年至2019年红树林土地变化导致生态系统服务价值（ESV）净损失292亿美元。2019年估计的红树林ESV达每年8940亿美元，主要由调节服务和供给服务提供（分别为57.4%和19.7%）。在接下来的二十年里，我们预计红树林恢复需要投资400亿至521亿美元，ESV净收益为2310亿至7250亿美元。红树林恢复的全球效益成本比（BCR）在6.35至15.0之间，表明此类项目具有很高的成本效益。此外，根据一项为期20年的红树林恢复计划，估计可在红树林土壤中封存19.4太克碳，通过蓝色碳交易可产生6.86亿至2.36亿美元。我们的研究结果凸显了蓝色碳恢复项目在缓解气候变化和支持生计方面的重大机遇。
