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确定影响伊朗当地社区洪水风险认知的因素。

Determining factors affecting flood risk perception among local communities in Iran.

作者信息

Savari Moslem, Jafari Ahmad, Sheheytavi Abbas

机构信息

Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran.

Department of Water Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Feb 3;15(1):4076. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-88673-2.

Abstract

Although climatic and environmental factors primarily determine the intensity of flood events, their impacts on residents are significantly influenced by human-related elements. Since the most floods are highly variable and unpredictable, it is crucial to enhance the capacity and resilience of residents to withstand and coexist with these disasters. To increase the resilience and adaptability of rural households in the face of floods, it is essential to first address individuals' risk perception as a critical issue. This study was conducted with two primary. Objectives (1) to assess the current status of risk perception and (2) to identify the factors influencing flood risk perception (FRP) among local communities. The research population comprised all rural households in the Shushtar County (Southwest Iran) who had experienced at least one flood event. The primary research tool was a questionnaire, and data analysis was performed using SPSS software. Correlation coefficient results indicated significant relationships between age, frequency of flood occurrence, education, distance of water channels and rivers from properties, flood exposure, housing quality, risk information, flood coping information, and financial incentives for recovery with dimensions of risk perception, namely preparedness, worry, awareness, and experience. Additionally, hierarchical regression results demonstrated that these variables could explain 55.4% of the variance in FRP. Overall, the findings of this study can significantly assist policymakers in designing flood risk reduction programs and facilitating safer living conditions in flood-prone areas.

摘要

尽管气候和环境因素主要决定洪水事件的强度,但它们对居民的影响在很大程度上受到人为因素的影响。由于大多数洪水具有高度的变化性和不可预测性,因此提高居民抵御这些灾害并与之共存的能力和恢复力至关重要。为了增强农村家庭面对洪水时的恢复力和适应能力,首先必须将个人的风险认知作为一个关键问题来解决。本研究主要有两个目标:(1)评估风险认知的现状;(2)确定影响当地社区洪水风险认知(FRP)的因素。研究对象包括舒什塔尔县(伊朗西南部)所有经历过至少一次洪水事件的农村家庭。主要研究工具是一份问卷,并使用SPSS软件进行数据分析。相关系数结果表明,年龄、洪水发生频率、教育程度、水道和河流与房产的距离、洪水暴露情况、住房质量、风险信息、洪水应对信息以及恢复的经济激励措施与风险认知维度(即准备、担忧、意识和经验)之间存在显著关系。此外,分层回归结果表明,这些变量可以解释FRP中55.4%的方差。总体而言,本研究的结果可以显著帮助政策制定者设计洪水风险降低计划,并促进洪水易发地区更安全的生活条件。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/afd4/11790974/0aa4e5b8838f/41598_2025_88673_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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