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影响伊朗稻农气候变化适应与减缓行为的心理和社会因素分析。

Analysis of psychological and social factors affecting climate change adaptation and mitigation behaviors among Iranian rice farmers.

作者信息

Savari Moslem, Khaleghi Bagher

机构信息

Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran.

Department of Forestry Policy and Economic, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 19;15(1):30431. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-15580-x.

Abstract

Rice is a vital staple crop, feeding billions globally. However, conventional rice farming practices, especially traditional irrigation techniques, are significant contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Flooded irrigation, in particular, creates anaerobic conditions that facilitate methane production-a GHG significantly more potent in terms of global warming potential compared to carbon dioxide. As a result, rice cultivation is a key driver of climate change (CC). Addressing these environmental challenges while maintaining sustainable productivity requires the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices. This study explores the factors influencing the adaptation and mitigation behaviors of Iranian rice farmers in response to CC. Utilizing the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory as theoretical frameworks, the research examines psychological and normative drivers that shape farmers' decision-making. This research was carried out in Shushtar County, located in Iran's Khuzestan Province in the southwest. The study utilized a structured survey tool, and the collected responses were analyzed through structural equation modeling (SEM). The results indicate that TPB more effectively explains adaptation intentions, while VBN provides greater insight into mitigation behaviors. The integrated TPB-VBN model accounts for 64.2% of the variance in adaptation intentions and 67.6% in mitigation intentions. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to foster sustainable rice farming practices that align with CC adaptation and mitigation objectives.

摘要

水稻是一种至关重要的主食作物,养活了全球数十亿人口。然而,传统的水稻种植方式,尤其是传统灌溉技术,是温室气体(GHG)排放的重要来源。特别是淹水灌溉,会创造有利于甲烷产生的厌氧条件——甲烷是一种在全球变暖潜力方面比二氧化碳更具威力的温室气体。因此,水稻种植是气候变化(CC)的一个关键驱动因素。在维持可持续生产力的同时应对这些环境挑战,需要采用气候智能型农业实践。本研究探讨了影响伊朗水稻种植户应对气候变化的适应和缓解行为的因素。该研究以计划行为理论(TPB)和价值-信念-规范(VBN)理论为理论框架,考察了影响农民决策的心理和规范驱动因素。这项研究在位于伊朗西南部胡齐斯坦省的舒什塔尔县开展。该研究使用了一种结构化调查工具,并通过结构方程模型(SEM)对收集到的回答进行了分析。结果表明,TPB能更有效地解释适应意图,而VBN能更深入地洞察缓解行为。综合的TPB-VBN模型解释了适应意图中64.2%的方差和缓解意图中67.6%的方差。这些发现为旨在促进与气候变化适应和缓解目标相一致的可持续水稻种植实践的政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/210d/12365049/b627fb378e6d/41598_2025_15580_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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