Askari Esmaiel, Savari Moslem, Rezaei Marzieh
Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Bavi, Mollasani, Iran.
Department of Natural Resources Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandar-Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 14;15(1):29873. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-15847-3.
Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural disasters globally, inflicting extensive damage on infrastructure, causing significant economic losses, displacing communities, and triggering public health crises. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable due to inadequate infrastructure, substandard housing, widespread poverty, and low adaptive capacity-challenges that are especially pronounced in rural areas. In the absence of effective mitigation systems, the impact of floods on rural communities can intensify, potentially resulting in the complete collapse of local livelihoods. Therefore, enhancing the resilience of these communities through targeted capacity-building and resilience strategies is essential. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing the adoption of flood preparedness measures in rural regions of Iran. The primary research instrument was a questionnaire, and the data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This study employed Construal Level Theory (CLT) as its theoretical framework. The findings revealed that CLT components-including geographical distance, temporal distance, social distance, hypothetical distance, belief in climate change, and flood risk perception-significantly influence the adoption of protective measures prior to flood events, collectively explaining 67.1% of the variance. Notably, this research marks the first application of CLT in the context of flood preparedness, both in Iran and globally. As such, it offers novel insights for the development of effective flood management strategies in rural communities and lays a foundation for strengthening the resilience of their livelihoods.
洪水是全球最频繁且具破坏性的自然灾害之一，对基础设施造成广泛破坏，导致重大经济损失，使社区居民流离失所，并引发公共卫生危机。由于基础设施不足、住房条件差、贫困普遍以及适应能力低下，发展中国家尤其脆弱，这些挑战在农村地区尤为突出。在缺乏有效缓解系统的情况下，洪水对农村社区的影响可能会加剧，有可能导致当地生计彻底崩溃。因此，通过有针对性的能力建设和恢复力战略增强这些社区的恢复力至关重要。本研究旨在确定影响伊朗农村地区采取洪水防备措施的关键因素。主要研究工具是一份问卷，并使用结构方程模型（SEM）对数据进行分析。本研究采用解释水平理论（CLT）作为其理论框架。研究结果表明，CLT的组成部分——包括地理距离、时间距离、社会距离、假设距离、对气候变化的信念以及洪水风险认知——对洪水事件发生前采取保护措施有显著影响，共同解释了67.1%的方差。值得注意的是，这项研究是CLT在伊朗乃至全球洪水防备背景下的首次应用。因此，它为农村社区制定有效的洪水管理策略提供了新的见解，并为增强其生计恢复力奠定了基础。
