Ma Xiaojuan, Liu Zhuo, Geng Yuhui, Zhao Yuan, Meng Hua, Chen Mingbo, Pan Ting, Pan Dongfeng, Liang Peifeng
School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.
Ningxia Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control, Yinchuan, China.
BMC Infect Dis. 2025 Feb 3;25(1):160. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-10561-x.
The incidence of human brucellosis has risen sharply in China but little is known about trends in pastoral and agricultural areas respectively. This study aimed to analyze the annual and monthly incidence trends of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019. It sought to identify factors contributing to higher incidence rates at specific times and to compare incidence trends across pastoral, agricultural/pastoral, and agricultural areas.
Annual and monthly incidence and numbers of reported cases of human brucellosis in regional China between 2004 and 2019 were accessed from the National Public Health Science Data Sharing Center, and the annual percentage change (APC) in pastoral and agricultural areas was calculated. Annual and monthly trends were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression model.
569016 cases of human brucellosis were reported between 2004 and 2019 with a peak in 2014. A trend of increasing incidence was found (AAPC = 6.3%, 95% CI: 3.2-9.4%) with higher rates in pastoral areas but greater mean increases in agricultural (AAPC = 9.4) and agricultural/pastoral areas (AAPC = 7.7) than in pastoral areas (AAPC = 5.9). Infections occurred throughout the year with a concentration of cases between March and July. Increasing monthly incidence was found in all types of areas from January to May (APC > 0) and a decreasing monthly trend was seen from May to December (APC < 0, p < 0.05).
The incidence of human brucellosis was higher in pastoral areas of China than in agricultural/pastoral or agricultural areas, however, the rate of increase was higher in agricultural/pastoral and agricultural areas than in pastoral areas. Epidemic surveillance should be strengthened in key areas and prevention and control measures increased nationwide.
中国人间布鲁氏菌病发病率急剧上升，但牧区和农区的发病趋势分别鲜为人知。本研究旨在分析2004年至2019年中国人间布鲁氏菌病的年度和月度发病趋势。旨在确定特定时期发病率较高的影响因素，并比较牧区、农牧交错区和农区的发病趋势。
从国家公共卫生科学数据共享中心获取2004年至2019年中国各地区人间布鲁氏菌病的年度和月度发病率及报告病例数，并计算牧区和农区的年度百分比变化（APC）。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析年度和月度趋势。
2004年至2019年共报告569016例人间布鲁氏菌病病例，2014年达到高峰。发现发病率呈上升趋势（平均年度百分比变化[AAPC]=6.3%，95%置信区间：3.2-9.4%），牧区发病率较高，但农区（AAPC=9.4）和农牧交错区（AAPC=7.7）的平均增幅高于牧区（AAPC=5.9）。全年均有感染发生，病例集中在3月至7月。所有类型地区1月至5月的月发病率均呈上升趋势（APC>0），5月至12月呈下降趋势（APC<0，p<0.05）。
中国牧区人间布鲁氏菌病发病率高于农牧交错区或农区，然而，农牧交错区和农区的发病率增幅高于牧区。应加强重点地区的疫情监测，并在全国范围内加强防控措施。
