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气候、和平与冲突——过去与现在：融合历史科学与当代研究的见解

Climate, peace, and conflict-past and present: Bridging insights from historical sciences and contemporary research.

作者信息

White Sam, Collet Dominik, Alcoberro Agustí, Barriendos Mariano, Brázdil Rudolf, Castell Pau, Chen Siyu, de Coning Cedric, Degroot Dagomar, Dolák Lukáš, Döring Stefan, Gorostiza Santiago, Kleemann Katrin, Krampe Florian, Lin Kuan-Hui, Maughan Nicolas, Melo Natália, Molloy Barry, Ogilvie Astrid E J, Pai Piling, Pei Qing, Pfister Christian, Serafimova Silviya, Zhang Diyang

机构信息

Department of Political History, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, Snellmaninkatu 14 A, PO Box 54, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.

Research group The Nordic Little Ice Age, Center for Advanced Studies Oslo, Oslo, Norway.

出版信息

Ambio. 2025 May;54(5):774-792. doi: 10.1007/s13280-024-02109-1. Epub 2025 Feb 4.

DOI:
10.1007/s13280-024-02109-1
PMID:39903377
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11965034/
Abstract

Concern has risen that current global warming and more frequent extreme events such as droughts and floods will increase conflict around the world. This concern has spurred both social science research on contemporary climate, peace, and conflict as well as research in the historical sciences on past climate, weather, warfare, and violence. This perspectives article compares these two fields of scholarship and examines how each may benefit the other. It finds significant convergences in methods and insights across contemporary and historical research as well as persistent patterns in causal pathways between climate and conflict. Contemporary climate, peace, and conflict (CPC) research may sharpen methods and causal models for historical researchers. Historical studies, particularly those informed by contemporary research, may elucidate deep origins and long-term effects of climate-related conflicts. For policymakers and the public, history offers comprehensible ways to make sense of complex and contingent linkages and to construct cogent narratives of the past as well as storylines for the future.

摘要

人们越来越担心，当前的全球变暖以及干旱和洪水等更频繁的极端事件将增加世界各地的冲突。这种担忧激发了社会科学对当代气候、和平与冲突的研究，以及历史科学对过去气候、天气、战争和暴力的研究。这篇观点文章比较了这两个学术领域，并探讨了它们如何相互受益。研究发现，当代研究和历史研究在方法和见解上有显著的趋同之处，以及气候与冲突之间因果关系的持续模式。当代气候、和平与冲突（CPC）研究可能会为历史研究者完善方法和因果模型。历史研究，特别是那些受当代研究启发的研究，可能会阐明与气候相关冲突的深层根源和长期影响。对于政策制定者和公众来说，历史提供了可理解的方式来理解复杂和偶然的联系，并构建过去的有说服力的叙述以及未来的故事情节。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/21aa72df99e2/13280_2024_2109_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/759fd0acab61/13280_2024_2109_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/84553f0e2b18/13280_2024_2109_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/14ce0d60c8b7/13280_2024_2109_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/21aa72df99e2/13280_2024_2109_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/759fd0acab61/13280_2024_2109_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/1dc3d9575eb9/13280_2024_2109_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/8d92b2fe4e0a/13280_2024_2109_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/84553f0e2b18/13280_2024_2109_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/14ce0d60c8b7/13280_2024_2109_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4dcb/11965034/21aa72df99e2/13280_2024_2109_Fig6_HTML.jpg

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