Park Jiwoo, Oh Jieun, Lee Whanhee, Kim Yeonsu, Park Jeong Ho, Kim Ho, Hwang Seungsik
Department of Information Convergence Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea.
Center for Artificial Intelligence Research, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Feb 5;25(1):457. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-21660-4.
Both climate change and intentional injuries (suicide attempts and violence) are recognized as crucial factors that affect human health. Previous studies revealed the association between ambient temperatures and deaths due to intentional injuries but mostly about the consequences of severe events. Our study aimed to examine suicide attempts and violence incidence including mild and moderate cases with future projections, using each injury's burden about climate change scenarios.
We collected nationally representative cases of suicide attempts (8,512 cases) and violence (9,742 cases) from the Korea National Hospital Discharge In-depth Injury Survey from 2005 to 2019. We performed a two-stage analysis with a time-stratified case-crossover design to evaluate the associations of outdoor temperatures with suicide attempts and violence using historical data (2005-2019). Based on the estimated associations in the historical period, we projected the excess suicide attempts and violence attributable to ambient temperatures in the future (2020-2099) using the three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios.
We found positive associations between outdoor temperatures with suicide attempts and violence individually, and the association with violence was more linear. The excess suicide attempts attributable to temperatures in the historical period were around 11%, and it was expected to increase in all SSP scenarios (up to 14.35%). For violence, the excess risk of violence attributable to temperatures in the historical period was around 3.5%, and it was also estimated to increase in the future (up to 7.92%).
The nationwide study about South Korea shows that there are associations between an increase in outdoor temperatures and increased risks of suicide attempts and violence, and each excess injury related to temperature is projected to grow under the SSP scenarios. Our findings might provide informative evidence for relevant action plans against climate change and intentional injuries.
气候变化和故意伤害（自杀未遂及暴力行为）均被视为影响人类健康的关键因素。既往研究揭示了环境温度与故意伤害致死之间的关联，但大多聚焦于严重事件的后果。我们的研究旨在利用每种伤害在气候变化情景下的负担，对自杀未遂和暴力发生率（包括轻度和中度病例）进行未来预测。
我们从2005年至2019年的韩国国家医院出院深度伤害调查中收集了具有全国代表性的自杀未遂病例（8512例）和暴力病例（9742例）。我们采用时间分层病例交叉设计进行两阶段分析，以利用历史数据（2005 - 2019年）评估室外温度与自杀未遂及暴力行为之间的关联。基于历史时期的估计关联，我们使用三种共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景预测了未来（2020 - 2099年）因环境温度导致的额外自杀未遂和暴力行为。
我们分别发现室外温度与自杀未遂及暴力行为之间存在正相关，且与暴力行为的关联更呈线性。历史时期因温度导致的额外自杀未遂约为11%，预计在所有SSP情景下都会增加（最高可达14.35%）。对于暴力行为，历史时期因温度导致的额外暴力风险约为3.5%，预计未来也会增加（最高可达7.92%）。
这项关于韩国的全国性研究表明，室外温度升高与自杀未遂和暴力行为风险增加之间存在关联，并且在SSP情景下预计与温度相关的每种额外伤害都会增加。我们的研究结果可能为应对气候变化和故意伤害的相关行动计划提供有益的证据。
