Chung Maya V, Vecchi Gabriel A, Yang Wenchang, Grenfell Bryan, Metcalf C Jessica
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University Princeton NJ USA.
High Meadows Environmental Institute Princeton University Princeton NJ USA.
Geohealth. 2025 Feb 11;9(2):e2024GH001193. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001193. eCollection 2025 Feb.
Climate and infectious diseases each present critical challenges on a warming planet, as does the influence of climate on disease. Both are governed by nonlinear feedbacks, which drive multi-annual cycles in disease outbreaks and weather patterns. Although climate and weather can influence infectious disease transmission and have spawned rich literature, the interaction between the independent feedbacks of these two systems remains less explored. Here, we demonstrate the potential for long-lasting impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on disease dynamics using two approaches: interannual perturbations of a generic SIRS model to represent ENSO forcing, and detailed analysis of realistic specific humidity data in an SIRS model with endemic coronavirus (HCoV-HKU1) parameters. Our findings reveal the importance of considering nonlinear feedbacks in susceptible population dynamics for predicting and managing disease risks associated with ENSO-related weather variations.
在气候变暖的地球上，气候和传染病各自都带来了严峻挑战，气候对疾病的影响亦是如此。两者都受非线性反馈的支配，这种反馈驱动着疾病爆发和天气模式的多年周期。尽管气候和天气会影响传染病传播，并且已经产生了丰富的文献，但这两个系统独立反馈之间的相互作用仍有待深入研究。在这里，我们使用两种方法证明了厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动（ENSO）事件对疾病动态产生长期影响的可能性：对通用SIRS模型进行年际扰动以表示ENSO强迫，以及对具有地方性冠状病毒（HCoV - HKU1）参数的SIRS模型中的实际比湿数据进行详细分析。我们的研究结果揭示了在易感人群动态中考虑非线性反馈对于预测和管理与ENSO相关天气变化相关的疾病风险的重要性。
