Talafuhan Wulan, Tuoheti Kaibinuer, Lixia Ye, Shuang Qi, Yeerjiang Mieyier, Aizezi Guzalinuer, Jingjing Wei, Mijiti Peierdun
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China.
Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Jan 23;12:1504481. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1504481. eCollection 2024.
Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is widespread globally but imposes a particularly heavy burden in Central Asia. Despite control measures, disease management remains suboptimal in this region. This study analyzed trends in CE incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1992 to 2021 in Central Asia; compared them with global data; and explored variations by gender, age group, and country to identify critical factors in disease control.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we analyzed long-term trends in the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of CE in Central Asia. The joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) to identify shifts in disease trends. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model was used to assess the impact of various age groups, periods, and birth cohorts on the disease burden.
The number of CE cases increased by 52.13% in Central Asia, while deaths decreased by 57.35%; DALYs decreased only slightly by 10.75%. From 1992 to 2021, CE incidence showed an increasing trend until 2010, then rapidly declined until 2015, and then gradually increased thereafter. The highest incidence rates were among middle-aged and older adult populations. Although mortality and DALY rates decreased across all age groups, the decline was less than the global trend. Gender analysis showed that the incidence rate was significantly higher in males than in females.
Although there have been improvements in the CE disease burden in some Central Asian countries, the overall burden remains significant. This study highlights the importance of considering gender, age, and country-specific disease burdens when formulating public health policies. Future research should continue to monitor these trends and explore targeted prevention strategies within diverse socioeconomic contexts, such as integrating regional socioeconomic factors and public health resources.
囊性棘球蚴病（CE）在全球广泛流行，但在中亚地区负担尤为沉重。尽管采取了防控措施，该地区的疾病管理仍不尽人意。本研究分析了1992年至2021年中亚地区CE的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）趋势；将其与全球数据进行比较；并按性别、年龄组和国家探讨差异，以确定疾病控制的关键因素。
利用全球疾病负担研究2021（GBD 2021）的数据，我们分析了中亚地区CE发病率、死亡率和DALY率的长期趋势。采用连接点回归模型计算年度百分比变化（APC）和平均APC（AAPC），以确定疾病趋势的变化。此外，使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估不同年龄组、时期和出生队列对疾病负担的影响。
中亚地区CE病例数增加了52.13%，而死亡人数减少了57.35%；DALYs仅略有下降，为10.75%。1992年至2021年，CE发病率在2010年前呈上升趋势，然后迅速下降至2015年，此后逐渐上升。发病率最高的是中年及老年人群。尽管所有年龄组的死亡率和DALY率均有所下降，但下降幅度小于全球趋势。性别分析表明，男性发病率显著高于女性。
尽管中亚一些国家的CE疾病负担有所改善，但总体负担仍然很重。本研究强调了在制定公共卫生政策时考虑性别、年龄和国家特定疾病负担的重要性。未来的研究应继续监测这些趋势，并在不同的社会经济背景下探索有针对性的预防策略，如整合区域社会经济因素和公共卫生资源。
