Mingolla Stefano, Rosa Lorenzo
Biosphere Sciences & Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA.
Nat Food. 2025 Feb 17. doi: 10.1038/s43016-025-01125-y.
Ammonia-based synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (N fertilizers) are critical for global food security. However, their production, primarily dependent on fossil fuels, is energy- and carbon-intensive and vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, affecting 1.8 billion people reliant on either imported fertilizers or natural gas. Here we examine the global N-fertilizer supply chain and analyse context-specific trade-offs of low-carbon ammonia production pathways. Carbon capture and storage can reduce overall emissions by up to 70%, but still relies on natural gas. Electrolytic and biochemical processes minimize emissions but are 2-3 times more expensive and require 100-300 times more land and water than the business-as-usual production. Decentralized production has the potential to reduce transportation costs, emissions, reliance on imports and price volatility, increasing agricultural productivity in the global south, but requires policy support. Interdisciplinary approaches are essential to understand these trade-offs and find resilient ways to feed a growing population while minimizing climate impacts.
氨基合成氮肥对全球粮食安全至关重要。然而,其生产主要依赖化石燃料,能源和碳密集度高,且易受供应链中断影响,波及18亿依赖进口肥料或天然气的人口。在此,我们审视全球氮肥供应链,并分析低碳氨生产途径在特定背景下的权衡取舍。碳捕获与封存可将总体排放量降低多达70%,但仍依赖天然气。电解和生化工艺可将排放降至最低,但成本比常规生产高2至3倍,所需土地和水资源比常规生产多100至300倍。分散式生产有潜力降低运输成本、排放、对进口的依赖及价格波动,提高全球南方的农业生产力,但需要政策支持。跨学科方法对于理解这些权衡取舍并找到既能养活不断增长的人口又能将气候影响降至最低的弹性方式至关重要。