Ren Chenchen, He Liyin, Rosa Lorenzo
Biosphere Sciences and Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA.
Nat Food. 2025 Apr;6(4):389-400. doi: 10.1038/s43016-024-01107-6. Epub 2025 Jan 8.
Climate change poses substantial challenges to agriculture and crop production, but the combined role of nitrogen and water inputs in adaptation has been largely overlooked. Here, by developing regression models using US county-level data (2008-2020), we demonstrate that integrated optimization of irrigation and nitrogen inputs represents the most resource-efficient strategy to offset the climate-related yield losses. Under the 1.5 °C (3 °C) warming scenario, this approach involves increasing irrigation water withdrawals for maize by 62% (67%) and reducing it for soybean by 65% (58%), while increasing nitrogen inputs for maize by 4% (13%) and for soybean by 10% (130%) annually. This strategy reduces unsustainable irrigation water withdrawals by 73% (56%) for maize and 26% (28%) for soybean, enhancing water sustainability. Cost-benefit analysis indicates this optimization is cost-effective for over 80% of US maize and soybean productions, underscoring its critical role for climate change adaptation.
气候变化给农业和作物生产带来了巨大挑战，但氮素和水分投入在适应气候变化中的综合作用在很大程度上被忽视了。在此，我们利用美国县级数据（2008 - 2020年）建立回归模型表明，灌溉和氮素投入的综合优化是抵消与气候相关的产量损失的最具资源效率的策略。在升温1.5℃（3℃）的情景下，该方法包括将玉米的灌溉取水量增加62%（67%），将大豆的灌溉取水量减少65%（58%），同时每年将玉米的氮素投入增加4%（13%），将大豆的氮素投入增加10%（130%）。该策略使玉米的不可持续灌溉取水量减少73%（56%），大豆减少26%（28%），提高了水资源可持续性。成本效益分析表明，这种优化对于美国80%以上的玉米和大豆生产具有成本效益，凸显了其在适应气候变化中的关键作用。
