Liu Xinwei, Wu Bing, Lai Yongqiang, Zhang Xiyu, Li Hongyu, Qu Fangqi, Zhang Chenxi, Tian Yulu, Fu Xuelian, Li Jida, Yang Huiqi, Chen Rui, Shi Baoguo, Ma Yanan, Meng Jia, Li Ye
Research Center of Public Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Diabetes Metab Res Rev. 2025 Feb;41(2):e70036. doi: 10.1002/dmrr.70036.
We aimed to assess changes in the burden of diabetes in the Western Pacific region (WPR) between 1990 and 2019, project future trends for 2020-2044, and identify the factors influencing these trends.
Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were used to calculate the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised death rate (ASDR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate for diabetes in the region. The Nordpred model was used to predict diabetes-related ASIR and ASDR trends over the next 25 years, and an age-period-cohort (APC) model analysed the effects of age, period and cohort. We examined the associations of ASIR, ASDR and age-standardised DALYs rate per 100,000 population with the socio-demographic index (SDI).
We observed an increasing trend in the incidence. Mortality increased in the lower-middle income group and decreased slowly in the high- and upper-middle income groups. High body mass index significantly affected diabetes, with an increasing influence over time, whereas that of tobacco showed a decreasing trend. The incidence of diabetes showed a trend towards occurring at a younger age, in a manner consistent with the economic development trend. Diabetes incidence and mortality showed the opposite trend in the high-income group, with an increase in SDI.
The burden of diabetes is increasing in the WPR, in association with urbanisation and unhealthy lifestyles. Targeting the risk factors that affect all stages of the disease and managing them through multi-agency collaboration may improve the quality of life in patients living with the condition.
我们旨在评估1990年至2019年西太平洋地区（WPR）糖尿病负担的变化，预测2020 - 2044年的未来趋势，并确定影响这些趋势的因素。
使用2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据来计算该地区糖尿病的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）和年龄标准化残疾调整生命年（DALYs）率。Nordpred模型用于预测未来25年糖尿病相关的ASIR和ASDR趋势，年龄 - 时期 - 队列（APC）模型分析年龄、时期和队列的影响。我们研究了每10万人口的ASIR、ASDR和年龄标准化DALYs率与社会人口指数（SDI）之间的关联。
我们观察到发病率呈上升趋势。中低收入组的死亡率上升，高收入和中高收入组的死亡率缓慢下降。高体重指数对糖尿病有显著影响，且随着时间推移影响增大，而烟草的影响呈下降趋势。糖尿病发病率呈现出在更年轻年龄发生的趋势，与经济发展趋势一致。在高收入组中，糖尿病发病率和死亡率呈现相反趋势，随着SDI的增加，发病率上升。
西太平洋地区糖尿病负担正在增加，这与城市化和不健康的生活方式有关。针对影响疾病各个阶段的风险因素，并通过多机构合作进行管理，可能会改善糖尿病患者的生活质量。
