Ye Xibiao, Sevcenco Ioana, Mercer Richard, Ngo Henry, Parker Alyssa, Dao Viet, Okamoto Reiko, Henry Bonnie
Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, British Columbia.
University of Victoria.
Health Rep. 2025 Feb 19;36(2):3-14. doi: 10.25318/82-003-x202500200001-eng.
Studies have shown that excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic caused declines of life expectancy at birth (LE₀) in most countries around the world, after decades of improvement prior to the pandemic. However, those studies rarely examined the contributions from specific causes of death other than COVID-19.
This study used the Chiang method to estimate LE₀ for each year in British Columbia from 2000 to 2022 and the changes from 2019 to 2020, 2021, and 2022. Each death case was classified into 1 of 23 categories, including COVID-19, unregulated drug toxicity, cardiovascular diseases, and injuries, according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10). The changes in LE₀ were decomposed into age and causes of death using the Arriaga method.
Compared with 2019, male LE₀ decreased by 1.16 years in 2020, 1.81 years in 2021, and 1.62 years in 2022; female LE₀ did not change in 2020, but decreased by 0.65 years in 2021, and by 0.56 years in 2022. COVID-19 and unregulated drug toxicity were the top two causes of deaths contributing to the LE₀ declines in males and females, with COVID-19 being the number one contributor in females and unregulated drug toxicity deaths as the number one contributor in males.
The COVID-19 pandemic impacted population health not only through its direct effects but also through indirect impacts on other health outcomes, including the unregulated drug toxicity crisis, the combination of which were driving factors in the decline in life expectancy at birth.
研究表明，在经历了数十年的预期寿命提升后，新冠疫情期间全因死亡率过高导致全球大多数国家的出生时预期寿命（LE₀）下降。然而，这些研究很少考察除新冠病毒肺炎之外的其他特定死因所造成的影响。
本研究采用蒋氏方法估计了2000年至2022年不列颠哥伦比亚省每年的LE₀以及2019年至2020年、2021年和2022年的变化情况。根据国际疾病分类第十版（ICD-10），每例死亡病例被归类到23个类别中的1个，包括新冠病毒肺炎、药物毒性未加管制、心血管疾病和伤害等。使用阿瑞亚加方法将LE₀的变化分解为年龄和死因。
与2019年相比，男性LE₀在2020年下降了1.16岁，2021年下降了1.81岁，2022年下降了1.62岁；女性LE₀在2020年没有变化，但在2021年下降了0.65岁，2022年下降了0.56岁。新冠病毒肺炎和药物毒性未加管制是导致男性和女性LE₀下降的前两大死因，其中新冠病毒肺炎是女性LE₀下降的首要因素，而药物毒性未加管制死亡是男性LE₀下降的首要因素。
新冠疫情不仅通过其直接影响，还通过对其他健康结果的间接影响，包括药物毒性未加管制危机，对人群健康产生了影响，这些因素共同导致了出生时预期寿命的下降。
