Ghío-Suárez Gonzalo, Alegría-Silva Andrés, García-Arias Jenny
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Institut National d'Éétudes Démographiques, Paris, France.
Cad Saude Publica. 2024 May 20;40(5):e00182823. doi: 10.1590/0102-311XES182823. eCollection 2024.
This article shows the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on life expectancy in Chile in 2020, based on mortality statistics published in March 2023. To this end, a counterfactual mortality was estimated for 2020 without COVID-19; based on the pattern of mortality by cause of death from 1997 to 2019, mortality charts were created to calculate life expectancy from 2015 to 2020 and an estimation for 2020, and the difference between expected and observed life expectancy in 2020 was then separated by age group and cause of death. Life expectancy in 2020 interrupted the upward trend from 2015 to 2019, showing a decline of 1.32 years in men and 0.75 years in women compared to 2019. Compared to the estimated 2020, life expectancy was 1.51 years lower in men and 0.92 years lower in women, but the direct impact of COVID-19 on the decrease in life expectancy was greater (1.89 for men and 1.5 for women) in the 60-84 age group in men and the 60-89 age group in women. The direct negative impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy was partially mitigated by significant positive indirect impacts on two groups of causes of death: diseases of the respiratory system and infectious and parasitic diseases. This study shows the need to differentiate direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, due to the implications for public health when the intensity of COVID-19 decreases and mobility restrictions are suspended.
本文基于2023年3月公布的死亡率统计数据，展示了2020年新冠疫情对智利预期寿命的直接和间接影响。为此，估算了2020年若无新冠疫情时的反事实死亡率；根据1997年至2019年按死因划分的死亡率模式，绘制了死亡率图表，以计算2015年至2020年以及2020年的预期寿命估算值，然后按年龄组和死因划分2020年预期寿命的预期值与观测值之间的差异。2020年的预期寿命中断了2015年至2019年的上升趋势，与2019年相比，男性下降了1.32岁，女性下降了0.75岁。与估算的2020年预期寿命相比，男性预期寿命低1.51岁，女性低0.92岁，但在男性60 - 84岁年龄组和女性60 - 89岁年龄组中，新冠疫情对预期寿命下降的直接影响更大（男性为1.89，女性为1.5）。新冠疫情对预期寿命的直接负面影响部分被对两组死因（呼吸系统疾病以及传染病和寄生虫病）的显著正向间接影响所缓解。这项研究表明，由于在新冠疫情强度降低和流动限制解除时对公共卫生有影响，因此有必要区分新冠疫情的直接和间接影响。
