Palamenghi Andrea, Aragon-Molina Antonio, Caccia Giulia, Mazzarelli Debora, Alemanno Sofia, Donida Labati Ruggero, Scotti Fabio, Piuri Vincenzo, Campobasso Carlo Pietro, Cattaneo Cristina, De Angelis Danilo, Gibelli Daniele
Laboratorio Di Antropologia e Odontologia Forense, Sezione Di Medicina Legale, Dipartimento Di Scienze Biomediche Per La Salute, LABANOF, Università Degli Studi Di Milano, Via L. Mangiagalli 37, 20133, Milan, Italy.
Laboratorio Di Anatomia Funzionale Dell'Apparato Stomatognatico, Dipartimento Di Scienze Biomediche Per La Salute, LAFAS, Università Degli Studi Di Milano, Via L. Mangiagalli 31, 20133, Milan, Italy.
Int J Legal Med. 2025 Mar 3. doi: 10.1007/s00414-025-03462-w.
In forensic anthropology, personal identification is mainly performed through a qualitative assessment and comparison of morphological bone and dental features between antemortem and postmortem data. Although non-metric traits have been traditionally considered as individualizing features, their potential has been limitedly investigated. Indeed, frequencies of variants can represent an additional tool to provide probabilities and likelihood ratios that an individual presents a combination of traits, hence quantifying a possible identification. This study investigates the potential of cranial non-metric traits as individualizing features in personal identification, and it describes the application of this probabilistic approach to a sample from a mass fatality which occurred in 2015. 119 crania of males were assessed for scoring 35 non-metric traits by presence and absence. For each cranium, the compound frequencies of independent traits, probabilities and likelihood ratios that a cranium presents a specific blend of traits were calculated. Over 70% of the likelihood ratios exceeded 1,000,000, providing extremely strong evidence that a specific set of traits corresponds to a cranium. Probabilities to find an individual with the set of traits within a group of 528 people (corresponding to the recovered bodies for this case) were extremely low (e.g., 0.006 people out of 528). The considerably high likelihood ratios and low probabilities suggest that combinations of cranial non-metric traits are extremely specific to the single individual, hence they represent valuable individualizing features. Despite this approach does not seem immediately applicable for the resolution of this case because of the dearth of appropriate antemortem images, collecting cranial non-metric frequencies may be worth of further investigation as a supplementary tool to screen potential identities and provide quantitative evidence to the investigators and the judge.
在法医人类学中，个人识别主要通过对生前和死后数据之间骨骼和牙齿形态特征进行定性评估和比较来进行。尽管传统上非计量性状被视为个体特征，但其潜力尚未得到充分研究。事实上，变异频率可以作为一种额外的工具，用于提供个体具有特定性状组合的概率和似然比，从而量化可能的识别结果。本研究调查了颅骨非计量性状作为个人识别中个体特征的潜力，并描述了这种概率方法在2015年发生的一起大规模死亡事件样本中的应用。对119例男性颅骨进行评估，根据有无情况对35种非计量性状进行评分。对于每具颅骨，计算独立性状的复合频率、颅骨呈现特定性状组合的概率和似然比。超过70%的似然比超过1,000,000，这为特定的一组性状对应于某具颅骨提供了极其有力的证据。在528人（相当于该案件中找到的尸体数量）的群体中找到具有该性状组合个体的概率极低（例如，528人中仅有0.006人）。相当高的似然比和低概率表明，颅骨非计量性状的组合对个体具有极高的特异性，因此它们是有价值的个体特征。尽管由于缺乏合适的生前图像，这种方法似乎不能立即应用于该案件的解决，但收集颅骨非计量频率作为筛选潜在身份的补充工具，并为调查人员和法官提供定量证据，可能值得进一步研究。
