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恶化与改善:工业化对中国农业碳生产率的U型影响

Deterioration and improvement: The U-shaped impact of industrialization on agricultural carbon productivity in China.

作者信息

Zeng Gui, Wang Hana

机构信息

School of Economics, Hunan Institute of Engineering, Xiangtan, China.

出版信息

Sci Prog. 2025 Jan-Mar;108(1):368504241302960. doi: 10.1177/00368504241302960.

Abstract

Industry and agriculture are two major industries for a country's economic development and also important areas for promoting sustainable development. At present, most countries in the world have started the process of industrialization, and green agriculture is also valued by all countries. So what will be the impact of industrialization on the development of low-carbon agriculture? Studying this problem has a good theoretical and practical significance. To this end, we take the example of China's 2000-2021 provincial samples to study the impact of industrialization on agricultural carbon productivity. The study found that industrialization has a nonlinear effect on agricultural carbon productivity, with a significant U-shaped feature, i.e. first deteriorating and then improving. And there is obvious heterogeneity in this feature. The balance area of grain production and marketing and the main grain selling area are better than the main grain-producing areas, and the eastern and central regions are better than the western region. At the same time, in this process of influence, the level of economic development and urbanization has played a good role mechanism, while the transport infrastructure has played a positive regulatory effect.

摘要

工业和农业是一个国家经济发展的两大产业,也是促进可持续发展的重要领域。目前,世界上大多数国家已开始工业化进程,绿色农业也受到各国重视。那么工业化对低碳农业发展会产生怎样的影响呢?研究这一问题具有良好的理论和现实意义。为此,我们以中国2000 - 2021年省级样本为例,研究工业化对农业碳生产率的影响。研究发现,工业化对农业碳生产率具有非线性效应,呈现出显著的U型特征,即先恶化后改善。并且这一特征存在明显的异质性。粮食产销平衡区和主要粮食销售区优于主要粮食产区,东部和中部地区优于西部地区。同时,在这一影响过程中,经济发展水平和城镇化水平发挥了良好的作用机制,而交通基础设施则发挥了正向的调节作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/08b5/11877550/7d5f60ec370c/10.1177_00368504241302960-fig1.jpg

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