Angeli Leonardo, Caetano Constantino Pereira, Franco Nicolas, Coletti Pietro, Faes Christel, Molenberghs Geert, Beutels Philippe, Abrams Steven, Willem Lander, Hens Niel
Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.
Nat Commun. 2025 Mar 5;16(1):2230. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z.
Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children's contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.
了解不同年龄组在病毒传播中不断演变的作用对于有效的疫情管理至关重要。我们调查了2020年11月至2022年2月比利时的新冠病毒传播情况，重点关注特定年龄模式。通过采用整合社会接触数据并模拟人群易感性演变的下一代矩阵方法，我们对有效再生数进行了纵向扰动分析，以揭示特定年龄的传播动态。2020年11月至12月，年龄在[18, 60)岁的成年人是主要传播驱动因素，而儿童的贡献微乎其微。这种模式在2021年1月至3月期间发生了变化，当时恢复了面对面教学，且出现了阿尔法变种：12岁以下儿童在传播中至关重要。2021年3月严格的社交距离措施有助于减少年龄在[18, 30)岁的人群的显著贡献。到2021年6月，随着德尔塔变种成为主要毒株，年龄在[18, 40)岁的成年人成为传播的主要贡献者，在2021年9月至10月期间儿童的贡献再次上升。这项研究突出了我们的方法在识别特定年龄传播模式方面的有效性。
