Medicaid Home and Community Based Services Spending and Nursing Home Use by Individuals Under the Age of 44.

Prior studies of the role of state spending on home and community-based services (HCBS) in nursing home use focused on adults over the age of 65. However, medically complex children and adults under 50 years old represent a small (about 5%) but highly vulnerable subset of nursing home patients. We measured the impact of HCBS spending on short-term and long-term nursing home stays by children and adults under 44 years old and compared the impact between Non-Hispanic White (NHW) individuals and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC). We used the Minimum Data Set to measure nursing home stays in each state per year in 2012 to 2019. The Medicaid Long Term Services and Supports annual expenditure reports were used to measure HCBS expenditures per state resident with a disability. Our outcome was nursing home use by children (<18 years old) and adults (18-43 years old) associated with a change in HCBS expenditures per state resident with a disability (measured in $1000 increments) estimated using linear regression. Higher HCBS expenditures per resident were associated with fewer short-term and long-term nursing home stays among NHW children. We did not find statistically significant association between changes in HCBS expenditures and nursing home stays among BIPOC children. Investments in HCBS are necessary to reduce nursing home use among younger adults. However, to mitigate racial disparities in nursing home use among children, HCBS spending alone may not be sufficient.