Gulis Gabriel, Zidkova Radka, Meier Zdenek
Unit for Health Promotion Research, University of Southern Denmark, Degnevej 14, 6700, Esbjerg, Denmark.
Olomouc University Social Health Institute (OUSHI), Palacky University Olomouc, Katerinska 653/17, 77900, Olomouc, Czech Republic.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 15;15(1):8961. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-94050-w.
The epidemiological transition has been characterized by demographic, societal and health changes in societies. Presuming that acute diseases, mostly of communicable etiology, are more important in terms of early-life mortality, whereas chronic diseases are responsible for a greater burden of disease throughout the life course, we attempt to develop an index to measure the stage of the epidemiological transition. Using Global Burden of Diseases, Risk Factors and Injuries (GBD) data available at https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ on 04/04/2024 to calculate the Epidemiologic Transition Estimate (ETE) index as a ratio of YLD/YLL for the time period of 1990-2019. The values of the index ranged from 0.131 to 1.067 and 0.180 to 2.108 for males and females, respectively, across the 195 included countries. The transition process seems to be faster to females compared to males. The index shows consistently increasing values for five SDI-based country groups, with clear differences among the groups. Although more research and validation studies are needed despite all the uncertainties, the index seems to be robust to assess the progress in epidemiological transition. These findings can help to predict future social care and health system needs to address causes leading to YLD or YLL.
流行病学转变的特征是社会中的人口、社会和健康变化。假设急性疾病（大多由传染性病因引起）在早期死亡率方面更为重要，而慢性疾病在整个生命过程中造成更大的疾病负担，我们试图制定一个指数来衡量流行病学转变的阶段。利用2024年4月4日可在https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/获取的全球疾病、危险因素和伤害负担（GBD）数据，计算1990 - 2019年期间伤残调整生命年（YLD）与早死所致生命年损失（YLL）之比作为流行病学转变估计（ETE）指数。在纳入的195个国家中，该指数值男性范围为0.131至1.067，女性范围为0.180至2.108。与男性相比，女性的转变过程似乎更快。该指数显示，基于社会人口指数（SDI）的五个国家组的值持续上升，且组间存在明显差异。尽管存在所有这些不确定性，仍需要更多研究和验证研究，但该指数似乎对于评估流行病学转变的进展是可靠的。这些发现有助于预测未来社会护理和卫生系统应对导致YLD或YLL的原因的需求。
