Wang Xiaohan, Liu RuiTing, Wang Chunli, Sun Jingjing, Yang Dongliang
Chengde Medical University, Chengde, China.
Department of Ultrasound, Obstetrics and Gynecology Children's Hospital Area, Cangzhou People's Hospital, Cangzhou, China.
Front Oncol. 2025 Feb 28;15:1480197. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1480197. eCollection 2025.
Malignant peritoneal mesothelioma(MPM) is a highly aggressive malignant tumor that originates from peritoneal mesothelial cells. Due to the rarity of MPM, there are few survival prediction models specifically for visualization of malignant peritoneal mesothelioma.
This study aimed to develop a nomogram for the overall survival of MPM based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the data of Cangzhou People's Hospital were used for external verification.
Patients screened from the SEER database were divided into a training group and an internal verification group in a 7:3 ratio, with data from Cangzhou People's Hospital used as the external verification group. Cox proportional hazard regression was utilized to identify significant factors, and nomograms for 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month overall survival were developed. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using consistency index, calibration curve, and K-M curve.
Age, sex, histology, surgery, tumor size, chemotherapy, differentiated and the number of organ metastases were significant risk factors (p<0.05) and were included in the nomogram.The area under the subject worker curve at 6,12,18 months overall survival (AUC) was 0.782,0.784,0.766 for the training group, 0.804,0.791,0.796 for the internal verification group, 0.767,0.749,0.783 for the external verification group. The predicted correction curve was in good agreement with the observed results. The Kaplan-Meier curves of different risk groups showed significant differences.
This study represents the first visual prognostic model of MPM and the initial incorporation of organ metastasis into MPM prognostic factors. The nomograph serves as a reliable tool for clinicians to personalize overall survival prediction and maximize patient benefits by identifying the most effective treatment.
恶性腹膜间皮瘤（MPM）是一种起源于腹膜间皮细胞的高度侵袭性恶性肿瘤。由于MPM罕见，专门用于可视化恶性腹膜间皮瘤的生存预测模型很少。
本研究旨在基于监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库开发MPM总生存的列线图，并使用沧州市人民医院的数据进行外部验证。
从SEER数据库筛选的患者按7:3比例分为训练组和内部验证组，以沧州市人民医院的数据作为外部验证组。采用Cox比例风险回归识别显著因素，并开发6个月、12个月和18个月总生存的列线图。使用一致性指数、校准曲线和K-M曲线评估列线图的性能。
年龄、性别、组织学、手术、肿瘤大小、化疗、分化程度和器官转移数量是显著危险因素（p<0.05），并纳入列线图。训练组6个月、12个月和18个月总生存的受试者工作曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.782、0.784、0.766，内部验证组为0.804、0.791、0.796，外部验证组为0.767、0.749、0.783。预测校正曲线与观察结果吻合良好。不同风险组的Kaplan-Meier曲线显示出显著差异。
本研究代表了首个MPM视觉预后模型，并首次将器官转移纳入MPM预后因素。该列线图是临床医生个性化总生存预测的可靠工具，通过确定最有效的治疗方法使患者受益最大化。
