Andrei Filippo, Veltri Giuseppe Alessandro
Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
National University of Singapore and the Center for Behavioural and Implementation Science, Singapore, Singapore.
PLoS One. 2025 Mar 18;20(3):e0319794. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319794. eCollection 2025.
The emergence of social order on darknet markets presents social scientists with a unique puzzle. Because these markets operate outside of conventional regulatory frameworks, there is a lack of legitimate oversight to monitor transactions and protect users from opportunistic behaviour. While existing literature often examines the role of reputation in increasing sales, little attention has been paid to mechanisms that mitigate fraud. This study fills this gap by examining one of the largest known darknet platforms, Alphabay, which was operational from December 2014 to July 2017. Using two Generalised Additive Models (GAMs), results show that costly signals, such as a positive reputation, sellers' seniority and escrow services, are inversely associated with fraudulent activity on darknet markets. Conversely, cheap signals, such as long product descriptions characterised by complex vocabulary and a positive tone, correlate positively with opportunistic behaviour. The study provides empirical support for signalling theory, by showing that costly signals are more difficult to fake or manipulate and can reduce fraud. Conversely, the study also demonstrates empirically that cheap signals, while potentially effective in initially generating trust among buyers, are associated with an increase in fraud and opportunistic behaviour.
暗网市场上社会秩序的出现给社会科学家带来了一个独特的难题。由于这些市场在传统监管框架之外运作，缺乏合法的监督来监控交易并保护用户免受机会主义行为的侵害。虽然现有文献经常研究声誉在增加销售额方面的作用，但很少有人关注减轻欺诈的机制。本研究通过考察已知最大的暗网平台之一“阿尔法湾”（该平台于2014年12月至2017年7月运营）填补了这一空白。使用两个广义相加模型（GAMs），结果表明，诸如良好声誉、卖家资历和第三方托管服务等成本高昂的信号与暗网市场上的欺诈活动呈负相关。相反，诸如以复杂词汇和积极语气为特征的冗长产品描述等低成本信号与机会主义行为呈正相关。该研究通过表明成本高昂的信号更难伪造或操纵且能减少欺诈，为信号理论提供了实证支持。相反，该研究还通过实证证明，低成本信号虽然在最初建立买家信任方面可能有效，但与欺诈和机会主义行为的增加有关。
