Camponuri Simon K, Heaney Alexandra K, Cooksey Gail Sondermeyer, Vugia Duc J, Jain Seema, Swain Daniel L, Balmes John, Remais Justin V, Head Jennifer R
Emerg Infect Dis. 2025 May;31(5):1028-1032. doi: 10.3201/eid3105.241338. Epub 2025 Mar 18.
In 2023, California reported near-record high coccidioidomycosis cases after a dramatic transition from drought to heavy precipitation. Using an ensemble model, we forecasted 12,244 cases statewide during April 1, 2024-March 31, 2025, a 62% increase over cases reported 2 years before and on par with case counts for 2023.
2023年,加利福尼亚州经历了从干旱到强降水的急剧转变,之后报告了近乎创纪录的高球孢子菌病病例数。我们使用一个集合模型预测,在2024年4月1日至2025年3月31日期间,全州将有12244例病例,比两年前报告的病例数增加62%,与2023年的病例数相当。