Kmetty Zoltán, Stefkovics Ádám
HUN-REN Centre for Social Sciences, CSS-RECENS Research Group, Budapest, 1097, Hungary.
Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 18;15(1):9319. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-92349-2.
Willingness measures are widely employed in vignette and conjoint experiments. However, the predictive validity of these measures relies on the degree to which expressed intentions correspond with behavior in the real world. This study uses a unique research design that enables to validate an intention measure. In a 2022 online survey, respondents expressed their willingness to donate their social media data in hypothetical scenarios. Nine months later the same respondents were invited to participate in a genuine data donation study. The results show that the correlation between willingness and actual donation was moderate (η: 0.28). Additionally, the determinants of self-reports and sharing behavior did not overlap. The willingness to donate was more strongly associated with softer attitudinal variables, whereas actual data sharing was linked more closely to harder demographic variables. These findings challenge the predictive validity of willingness to share measures and highlight the need for realistic scenarios in survey experiments, minimizing participants' perceived risks of the task in question, and addressing social desirability bias.
意愿度量在 vignette 和联合实验中被广泛应用。然而，这些度量的预测效度取决于所表达的意图与现实世界中的行为相符的程度。本研究采用了一种独特的研究设计，能够对一种意图度量进行验证。在2022年的一项在线调查中，受访者在假设情境下表达了他们捐赠社交媒体数据的意愿。九个月后，同样的受访者被邀请参加一项真实的数据捐赠研究。结果表明，意愿与实际捐赠之间的相关性适中（η：0.28）。此外，自我报告和分享行为的决定因素并不重叠。捐赠意愿与较温和的态度变量联系更紧密，而实际数据分享则与更硬性的人口统计学变量联系更紧密。这些发现对分享意愿度量的预测效度提出了挑战，并强调了在调查实验中需要采用现实情境、尽量减少参与者对相关任务的感知风险以及应对社会期望偏差。
