Bebeley Jenneh F, Tofa Abdullahi I, Kamara Alpha Y, Jibrin Jibrin M, Solomon Reuben, Adeleke Musibau A, Omoigui Lucky O, Eseigbe Osagie B, Peter-Jerome Helen, Ademulegun Temitope D
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.
PLoS One. 2025 Mar 19;20(3):e0313786. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0313786. eCollection 2025.
A well-calibrated and evaluated GROPGRO module of the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate productivity of soybean in northern Nigeria under climate change. Both historical (1990-2019) and projected climate scenarios from 5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the mid-century (2040-2069) and end of the century (2070-2099) periods were used. Depending on climate scenario, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 1.7-4.4oC at Kano in the Sudan savanna (SS) agroecological zone (AEZ) and 1.4-4.0oC at Zaria in the northern Guinea savanna (NGS) AEZ, while maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 1.7-4.1oC in the SS and 1.3-3.6oC in the NGS. Seasonal average rainfall will increase by 4.8-14.5% in the SS and decrease by 2.6-3.8% in the NGS, relative to the baseline climate. The model predicted delaying trends for days to flowering and maturity for both varieties in all climate scenarios in the two AEZs. Despite the delay in flowering and increase in crop cycle length, climate change will result in grain yield reduction in most of the future scenarios. Across location, variety and time slice, the grain yield will decline by between 8.4 and 23.6% under RCP4.5 scenario, with much higher decline by between 28.7 and 51.4% under RCP 8.5 scenario. However, using the early maturing variety can reduce the adverse effects of climate change on grain yield. On average, the yield of the early-maturing TGX1835-10E is predicted to be 15.2% higher under RCP4.5 scenario and up to 21.7% under RCP8.5 than that of the medium-maturing TGX1951-3F for both centuries in the SS AEZ. In the NGS, the average yield of TGX1835-10E is predicted to be 9.0% and 7.5% higher than that of TGX1951-3F under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Using early-maturing soybean varieties is a key management strategy to boost the resilience of soybean production in Nigeria's savannas under climate change conditions.
农业技术转移决策支持系统（DSSAT）中经过良好校准和评估的GROPGRO模块，被用于模拟气候变化下尼日利亚北部大豆的生产力。使用了5个全球气候模型（GCM）在两种代表性浓度路径（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）下，本世纪中叶（2040 - 2069年）和本世纪末（2070 - 2099年）的历史（1990 - 2019年）及预测气候情景。根据气候情景，预计苏丹稀树草原（SS）农业生态区（AEZ）卡诺的最低温度将上升1.7 - 4.4摄氏度，北部几内亚稀树草原（NGS）AEZ扎里亚的最低温度将上升1.4 - 4.0摄氏度，而最高温度预计在SS上升1.7 - 4.1摄氏度，在NGS上升1.3 - 3.6摄氏度。相对于基准气候，季节性平均降雨量在SS将增加4.8 - 14.5%，在NGS将减少2.6 - 3.8%。该模型预测，在两个AEZ的所有气候情景下，两个品种的开花天数和成熟天数均呈延迟趋势。尽管开花延迟且作物生长周期长度增加，但在大多数未来情景下，气候变化将导致粮食产量下降。在不同地点、品种和时间切片中，在RCP4.5情景下，粮食产量将下降8.4%至23.6%，在RCP 8.5情景下下降幅度更高，为28.7%至51.4%。然而，使用早熟品种可以减少气候变化对粮食产量的不利影响。平均而言，在SS AEZ的两个世纪中，预计早熟品种TGX1835 - 10E在RCP4.5情景下的产量比中熟品种TGX1951 - 3F高15.2%，在RCP8.5情景下高达21.7%。在NGS，预计TGX1835 - 10E在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的平均产量分别比TGX1951 -
