Gorosito Irene L, Marziali Bermúdez Mariano, Alonso Daniel O, Bellomo Carla, Iglesias Ayelén, Martinez Valeria, Busch Maria
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
CONICET - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), 2160 - Ciudad Universitaria, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Ecohealth. 2025 Mar 25. doi: 10.1007/s10393-025-01710-4.
Studies show the link between hantavirus infection in rodents and human infection risk. Understanding factors contributing to rodent hantavirus transmission is crucial for assessing and predicting human hantavirus pulmonary syndrome risk. Infection dynamics are often studied using seroprevalence time series from serological tests, but this method only provides an average consequence over time, offering limited insight into timing or mechanisms. To overcome this, we developed a strategy which combines capture-mark-recapture data and longitudinal serological data in order to determine the likely time window for infection and correlate it with individual features (sex and age) and the weather conditions to which each individual rodent was subject throughout its lifetime. We applied our seroconversion model to field data from two sigmodontine species, Akodon azarae and Oligoryzomys flavescens, collected in agroecosystems in the Buenos Aires province of Argentina, from May 2014 to January 2016, with a trapping effort of 19,800 trap-nights. By using daily time series, we found different weather conditions related to high seroconversion rates for each species, hardly identifiable in seroprevalence data. Higher infection rates in males and the fact that strongest effects on seroconversion converge at the time of the year that corresponds to the reproductive period indicate that transmission may be connected to matting behavior. In addition, by comparing weather conditions that relate to seroconversion with those which favor virus persistence in the environment, we argue that nesting habits could also play a role in hantavirus transmission.
研究表明啮齿动物感染汉坦病毒与人类感染风险之间存在关联。了解促成啮齿动物汉坦病毒传播的因素对于评估和预测人类汉坦病毒肺综合征风险至关重要。感染动态通常使用血清学检测的血清阳性率时间序列进行研究，但这种方法仅提供随时间的平均结果，对感染时间或机制的洞察有限。为克服这一问题，我们开发了一种策略，将标记重捕数据和纵向血清学数据相结合，以确定可能的感染时间窗口，并将其与个体特征（性别和年龄）以及每只啮齿动物一生中所经历的天气状况相关联。我们将血清转化模型应用于2014年5月至2016年1月在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯省农业生态系统中收集的两种稻鼠属物种——阿扎拉稻鼠和黄腹稻鼠的野外数据，诱捕工作量为19800个诱捕夜。通过使用每日时间序列，我们发现了与每个物种高血清转化率相关的不同天气状况，而这些在血清阳性率数据中很难识别。雄性感染率较高，且对血清转化的最强影响集中在对应繁殖期的一年中的那个时间，这表明传播可能与交配行为有关。此外，通过比较与血清转化相关的天气状况和有利于病毒在环境中持续存在的天气状况，我们认为筑巢习性也可能在汉坦病毒传播中起作用。
