Bao Wen, Qiao Lichun, Li Miaoqian, Shi Guoming, Liu Liang
Clinical Research Unit, Institute of Clinical Science, Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an 710061, China.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2025 Jun;96:102802. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2025.102802. Epub 2025 Mar 26.
The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is on the rise.
The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also employed to project disease trends for the next 15 years.
In 2021, new GBTC cases observed globally amounted to 216,768, with 171,961 mortality and 3732,121 DALYs. From 1990-2021, a notable surge was recorded in the incidence of GBTC by 101 %, mortality by 74.26 %, and DALYs by 60.45 %. Regions with superior Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) reflected elevated incidence and mortality rates. However, a significant decrease was noticed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Despite a reduction in health disparities among countries, differences remain. Prognostications predict a continual decline in global ASIR and ASMR through 2035.
The study found that the burden of GBTC in incidences, mortalities, and DALYs has been on the rise, with some correlation with socio-economic development.
胆囊和胆道癌（GBTC）的全球负担正在上升。
1990年至2021年GBTC的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）数据来自《2021年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2021）。还采用了贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型来预测未来15年的疾病趋势。
2021年，全球观察到的GBTC新发病例达216,768例，死亡171,961例，DALYs为3,732,121。1990年至2021年期间，GBTC的发病率显著上升了101%，死亡率上升了74.26%，DALYs上升了60.45%。社会人口指数（SDI）较高的地区发病率和死亡率也较高。然而，年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）出现了显著下降。尽管各国之间的健康差距有所缩小，但差异仍然存在。预测显示，到2035年全球ASIR和ASMR将持续下降。
该研究发现，GBTC在发病率、死亡率和DALYs方面的负担一直在上升，且与社会经济发展存在一定关联。
