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MM:区域尺度滑坡定量风险分析的多模态框架。

MM: Multimodal framework for regional-scale quantitative landslide risk analysis.

作者信息

Pollock William, Wartman Joseph

机构信息

Shannon & Wilson, Inc., 400N 34th St., Suite 100, Seattle, WA 98103, United States.

Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, 201 More Hall, Seattle, WA 98195, United States.

出版信息

MethodsX. 2025 Feb 18;14:103218. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2025.103218. eCollection 2025 Jun.

Abstract

Quantified estimates of landslide consequences in space and time (risk) facilitate rational land use decisions such as zoning for new development, protecting existing communities, allocating finite resources, designing mitigation works, and educating the public about natural hazards. Probabilistic landslide risk analysis (PLRA) should include all landslide modes, magnitudes, and triggering scenarios that could credibly cause harm and is most useful on a regional scale where landslide risk at a location can be compared across a broader area and in the context of other natural and anthropogenic sources of risk. However, to date, no readily transferable, regional-scale method for PLRA exists. In this work, we expand an existing deterministic multimodal method for landslide risk analysis developed in the country of Lebanon into a linked framework of code-based modules that are location-agnostic and computationally efficient for regional end-to-end risk estimation.•Use of near-global, remote-sensing-based inputs enables risk estimates almost anywhere in the world•Modular computational framework facilitates upgrades of component models as new research becomes available•Probabilistic implementation through a Monte Carlo approach.

摘要

对滑坡在空间和时间上的后果进行量化估计(风险)有助于做出合理的土地利用决策,例如为新开发项目划定区域、保护现有社区、分配有限资源、设计减灾工程以及向公众宣传自然灾害。概率性滑坡风险分析(PLRA)应涵盖所有可能造成危害的滑坡模式、规模和触发情景,并且在区域尺度上最为有用,因为在该尺度下,可以在更广阔的区域内并结合其他自然和人为风险源来比较某个地点的滑坡风险。然而,迄今为止,尚不存在一种易于转移的区域尺度PLRA方法。在这项工作中,我们将黎巴嫩开发的一种现有的确定性多模式滑坡风险分析方法扩展为一个基于代码的模块链接框架,该框架与位置无关,并且对于区域端到端风险估计具有计算效率。•使用基于近全球遥感的输入数据,几乎可以在世界任何地方进行风险估计•模块化计算框架便于在有新研究成果时对组件模型进行升级•通过蒙特卡罗方法进行概率性实现。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d436/11938156/dd20390cbe60/ga1.jpg

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