Stamper Aleksandra R, Mahmud Ayesha S, Nuzzo Jennifer R, Baker Rachel E
Department of Epidemiology Brown University Providence RI USA.
Institute at Brown for Environment and Society Brown University Providence RI USA.
Geohealth. 2025 Mar 27;9(4):e2024GH001138. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001138. eCollection 2025 Apr.
Influenza epidemics, a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality, are influenced by climate factors including absolute humidity and temperature. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, potentially impacting the duration and magnitude of future influenza epidemics. However, the extent of these projected effects on influenza outbreaks remains understudied. Here, we use an epidemiologic model adapted for temperate and tropical climates to explore how climate variability may affect seasonal influenza. Using climate anomalies derived from historical data, we found that simulated periods of anomalous climate conditions impacted both the projected influenza outbreak peak size and the total proportion infected, with the strongest effects observed when the anomaly was included just before the typical peak. Effects varied by climate: temperate regions showed a unimodal relationship, while tropical climates exhibited a nonlinear pattern. Our results emphasize that the intensity of weather extremes is key to understanding how climate change may affect influenza outbreaks, laying the groundwork for utilizing weather variability as a potential early warning for influenza activity.
流感流行是全球发病和死亡的主要原因之一，受到包括绝对湿度和温度在内的气候因素影响。预计气候变化将增加极端气候的频率和严重程度，可能影响未来流感流行的持续时间和规模。然而，这些预计对流感暴发的影响程度仍未得到充分研究。在此，我们使用一个适用于温带和热带气候的流行病学模型，探讨气候变异性如何影响季节性流感。利用从历史数据得出的气候异常情况，我们发现模拟的异常气候条件时期会影响预计的流感暴发峰值规模和总感染比例，当异常情况恰好在典型峰值之前纳入时观察到的影响最强。影响因气候而异：温带地区呈现单峰关系，而热带气候则呈现非线性模式。我们的结果强调，极端天气的强度是理解气候变化如何影响流感暴发的关键，为利用天气变异性作为流感活动的潜在早期预警奠定了基础。
