Flahault Antoine, de Castaneda Rafael Ruiz, Bolon Isabelle
1Centre Virchow-Villermé, Descartes School of Medicine, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.
2Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Public Health Rev. 2016 Oct 27;37:21. doi: 10.1186/s40985-016-0035-2. eCollection 2016.
Global changes are major determinants for infectious diseases, although attributable, part of climate change remains debatable. Vector-borne diseases are prone to be impacted by global warming, although other factors may play a substantial role, evidenced by the dramatic decrease in malaria in the last decades in places where climate change has deep and significant effects. There is now evidence that in some areas of the world, e.g. Horn of Africa, warm El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), which are observed in the South Pacific Ocean, are associated with higher risk of emergence of Rift Valley fever, cholera and malaria and during cold La Niña events, dengue fever, chikungunya and yellow fever. This has been observed for these and other diseases in other parts of the world. For example, seasonal influenza outbreaks have been more intense (i.e. higher number) and more severe (i.e. higher mortality) when concomitant with La Niña events. Since climate scientists have recently observed that climate change is tied to more frequent and more intense ENSO events, we may foresee increases in frequency and severity in emerging infectious diseases in the world.
全球变化是传染病的主要决定因素，尽管气候变化的部分影响仍存在争议。媒介传播疾病容易受到全球变暖的影响，尽管其他因素可能也起着重要作用，过去几十年里，在气候变化影响深刻且显著的地区，疟疾发病率急剧下降就证明了这一点。现在有证据表明，在世界某些地区，如非洲之角，在南太平洋观测到的温暖的厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）与裂谷热、霍乱和疟疾出现的较高风险相关，而在寒冷的拉尼娜事件期间，则与登革热、基孔肯雅热和黄热病相关。在世界其他地区的这些疾病和其他疾病中也观察到了这种情况。例如，季节性流感疫情在与拉尼娜事件同时发生时更为严重（即病例数更多）和更致命（即死亡率更高）。由于气候科学家最近观察到气候变化与更频繁、更强烈的ENSO事件有关，我们可以预见全球新发传染病的发生频率和严重程度将会增加。
