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1992年至2021年全球、区域和国家女性酒精性肝硬化负担及其预测

Global, regional, and national burdens of alcohol-related cirrhosis among women from 1992 to 2021 and its predictions.

作者信息

Zhang Zhou, Xu Chun-Mei, Chen Wei, Yao Kai-Tao, Sun Ting, Wang Jing-Hui

机构信息

Department of Gastroenterology, Xiangyang No.1 People's Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, 15 Liberation Road, Xiangyang, People's Republic of China.

Department of Gastroenterology & Endocrinology, Wuhan No 9 Hospital, Wuhan, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 31;15(1):10959. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-95563-0.

Abstract

Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis (AC) has become a growing global health issue, particularly affecting women. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global, regional, and national burden of AC in women from 1992 to 2021, addressing a research gap by focusing on long-term trends specific to women. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we assessed trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for AC in women across 204 countries. Temporal trends were examined using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) method, and future projections to 2030 were generated using the Nordpred model. Between 1992 and 2021, the global ASIR of AC in women showed a slight decrease, from 3.10 to 2.42 per 100,000, with an EAPC of -1.02. A significant variation was observed across Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with the highest ASIR (3.77 per 100,000) reported in low-SDI regions in 2021. Mortality and DALYs also declined globally but remained disproportionately high in lower-SDI regions. The age distribution analysis revealed distinct gender-specific trends, with women experiencing a marked increase in AC burden in older age groups. Predictions indicate a further decline in AC burden by 2030, although the disease remains a significant public health concern. The findings highlight both global progress and persistent regional disparities in the burden of AC among women. Targeted public health interventions, particularly in lower-SDI regions, are essential to address the ongoing burden of this preventable disease.

摘要

酒精性肝硬化(AC)已成为一个日益严重的全球健康问题,对女性的影响尤为显著。本研究全面分析了1992年至2021年全球、区域和国家层面女性AC负担情况,通过关注女性特有的长期趋势填补了研究空白。利用全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据库的数据,我们评估了204个国家女性AC的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、死亡率(ASMR)和伤残调整生命年(DALY)的趋势。采用估计年百分比变化(EAPC)方法研究时间趋势,并使用Nordpred模型生成到2030年的未来预测。1992年至2021年期间,全球女性AC的ASIR略有下降,从每10万人3.10例降至2.42例,EAPC为-1.02。社会人口指数(SDI)区域间存在显著差异,2021年低SDI区域报告的ASIR最高(每10万人3.77例)。全球范围内死亡率和DALY也有所下降,但在低SDI区域仍居高不下。年龄分布分析揭示了明显的性别特异性趋势,老年女性的AC负担显著增加。预测表明到2030年AC负担将进一步下降,尽管该疾病仍是一个重大的公共卫生问题。研究结果突出了全球在女性AC负担方面取得的进展以及持续存在的区域差异。针对性的公共卫生干预措施,特别是在低SDI区域,对于应对这种可预防疾病的持续负担至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8323/11958824/848ff3c18fc9/41598_2025_95563_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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