Koo Kyung Ah, Park Seon Uk
Korea Environment Institute Sejong-si Republic of Korea.
National Institute of Ecology Gyeongsangbuk-do Republic of Korea.
Ecol Evol. 2025 Apr 1;15(4):e71178. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71178. eCollection 2025 Apr.
Climate and land-use changes are key factors in the habitat loss and population declines of climate change-sensitive endangered species. We assessed the climate change effects on the distribution of , a critically endangered wildlife species in the Republic of Korea, in association with food availability ( and ), land-use change, and dispersal limitation. We first predicted the current and future distributions of , , and using the presence/absence data and current (2000) and future climate data (2050, 2100) with BioMod2, an ensemble platform for species distribution model projections. Then, the dispersal capacity of . and land-use change were coupled with SDMs using MigClim. We used future climate and land-use changes predicted according to the SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0) and the dispersal model estimated from previous studies. The current distributional areas of . were predicted to be about 10,956 km without land-cover coupling and 8.861 km with coupling, showing land-cover decreased by about 19% of the suitable habitat. The future predictions under climate change only showed the distribution reduced by 56% and 50% in 2050 and 2100 under SSP1-2.6, respectively, 55% and 48% under SSP2-4.5, and 44% and 14% under SSP3-7.0. Applying land-use change and dispersal capacity further decreased the future distribution of . but trivially (about 0.42% on average). The strict conservation policies and measures for . 's habitats explain the trivial additional decrease, delaying its habitat loss. However, our results suggest that such efforts cannot halt the climate change-driven habitat loss trend of . . Strong climate mitigation efforts and promoting the species' adaptive capacity are the only ways to reverse the tragic decline of climate-sensitive species.
气候和土地利用变化是导致对气候变化敏感的濒危物种栖息地丧失和种群数量下降的关键因素。我们评估了气候变化对韩国一种极度濒危野生动物物种分布的影响，并将其与食物可获得性（[具体食物名称1]和[具体食物名称2]）、土地利用变化以及扩散限制相关联。我们首先利用存在/缺失数据以及当前（2000年）和未来气候数据（2050年、2100年），借助BioMod2（一个用于物种分布模型预测的集成平台）预测了[物种名称1]、[物种名称2]和[物种名称3]的当前和未来分布。然后，使用MigClim将[物种名称1]的扩散能力和土地利用变化与物种分布模型相结合。我们采用了根据共享社会经济路径情景（SSP1 - 2.6、SSP2 - 4.5和SSP3 - 7.0）预测的未来气候和土地利用变化，以及从先前研究中估计的扩散模型。在不考虑土地覆盖耦合的情况下，[物种名称1]当前的分布面积预计约为10,956平方千米，考虑耦合时为8,861平方千米，这表明土地覆盖使适宜栖息地减少了约19%。仅考虑气候变化的未来预测显示，在SSP1 - 2.6情景下，2050年和2100年[物种名称1]的分布分别减少56%和50%；在SSP2 - 4.5情景下分别减少55%和48%；在SSP3 - 7.0情景下分别减少44%和14%。纳入土地利用变化和扩散能力进一步减少了[物种名称1]未来的分布，但幅度很小（平均约0.42%）。针对[物种名称1]栖息地的严格保护政策和措施解释了这种微小的额外减少，延缓了其栖息地丧失。然而，我们的结果表明，这些努力无法阻止气候变化导致的[物种名称1]栖息地丧失趋势。大力减缓气候变化并提升该物种的适应能力是扭转气候敏感物种悲惨衰退趋势的唯一途径。
