Laboratório de Estrutura e Dinâmica da Diversidade (LEDDiv), Departamento de Biologia Animal, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil.
Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2020 Dec;26(12):7036-7044. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15374. Epub 2020 Oct 23.
Humans have fragmented, reduced or altered the biodiversity in tropical forests around the world. Climate and land-use change act synergistically, increasing drought and fire frequencies, converting several tropical rainforests into derived savannas, a phenomenon known as "savannization." Yet, we lack a full understanding of the faunal changes in response to the transformation of plant communities. We argue that the composition of vertebrate assemblages in ecotone regions of forest-savanna transitions from South America will be increasingly replaced by open savanna species, a phenomenon we name "faunal savannization." We combined projections from ecological niche models, habitat filter masks and dispersal simulations to forecast the distribution of 349 species of forest- and savanna-dwelling mammal species across South America. We found that the distribution of savanna species is likely to increase by 11%-30% and spread over lowland Amazon and Atlantic forests. Conversely, forest-specialists are expected to lose nearly 50% of their suitable ranges and to move toward core forest zones, which may thus receive an influx of more than 60 species on the move. Our findings indicate that South American ecotonal faunas might experience high rates of occupancy turnover, in a process parallel to that already experienced by plants. Climate-driven migrations of fauna in human-dominated landscapes will likely interact with fire-induced changes in plant communities to reshape the biodiversity in tropical rainforests worldwide.
人类已经在世界各地的热带森林中造成生物多样性的破碎化、减少或改变。气候和土地利用变化协同作用，增加了干旱和火灾的频率，将一些热带雨林转变为衍生的热带稀树草原，这种现象被称为“热带稀树草原化”。然而，我们还不完全了解动物群对植物群落转化的反应。我们认为，南美的森林-稀树草原过渡带生态交错区的脊椎动物组合的组成将越来越多地被开阔稀树草原物种所取代，我们将这种现象命名为“动物群热带稀树草原化”。我们结合生态位模型、栖息地过滤掩模和扩散模拟的预测结果，预测了南美的 349 种森林和稀树草原栖息的哺乳动物物种的分布。我们发现，稀树草原物种的分布可能会增加 11%至 30%，并蔓延到低地亚马逊和大西洋森林。相反，森林特化物种预计将失去近 50%的适宜范围，并向核心森林区移动，这可能会导致超过 60 种物种涌入。我们的研究结果表明，南美生态交错区的动物群可能会经历高周转率的占据，这一过程与植物已经经历的过程相似。在人类主导的景观中，受气候驱动的动物群迁移可能会与火灾引起的植物群落变化相互作用，从而重塑全球热带森林的生物多样性。
